THE EFFECT OF STATISTICALLY DEPENDENT PHASES IN SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF THE SEA: A SIMULATION STUDY

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Belmont,, M.R. | Bogsjö, K. | Horwood, J.M.K. | Thurley, R.W.F.

Affiliations: University of Exeter, UK

Abstract: Simulations of deterministic sea wave prediction provide empirical evidence of the dependence of prediction accuracy on the degree of statistical dependence present in wave models. This issue is examined and to arise from the effect of local coherence on the estimation of spectral coefficients used in prediction models. Coherence within the phase spectrum is found to be particularly important in this respect. The consequences of these findings are discussed in terms of applying prediction to real seas and this raises the issue of coherence in actual wave systems.

Journal: International Shipbuilding Progress, vol. 51, no. 4, pp. 339-351, 2004