How uncertainty influences decision-making effectiveness in conceptual ship design processes

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Garcia Agis, Jose Jorge^{a; b; *} | Brett, Per Olaf^{a; b} | Erikstad, Stein Ove^b

Affiliations: [a] Ulstein International AS, Norway | [b] Norwegian University of Science and Technlogy, Norway

Correspondence: [*] Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected].

Abstract: BACKGROUND:Understanding how and why the development of conceptual ship designs sometimes become ineffective is essential for ship design firms. Our proposition is that in many projects, uncertainty influences negatively the effectiveness of the decision-making process. OBJECTIVE:The objective of this article is to quantify the perception of uncertainty in conceptual ship design processes. METHODS:In this article, we propose a research model to study such a phenomenon. The research model is tested using multivariate regression analysis, building on a survey conducted among 23 shipping companies. RESULTS:Our model suggests that 14% (R2) of the variability in the effectiveness of decision-making processes in ship design can be explained by changes in the perception of uncertainty. We can extract three interesting insights from this research work for the ship design practitioners as to how to improve the effectiveness of their design processes: (i) put more effort into the contextual factors affecting the ship design process, (ii) improve the communication with vessel owners and other stakeholders, and (iii) improve the agility of the design process. CONCLUSIONS:This study contributes to research on uncertainty in ship design processes by: (a) proposing an investigative model, (b) developing and testing a survey instrument and (c) running a multivariate regression analysis to study the effect of perceived uncertainty on the effectiveness of decision-making processes in conceptual ship design.

Keywords: Uncertainty, Ship design, decision-making effectiveness, multivariate regression analysis, survey

DOI: 10.3233/ISP-209003

Journal: International Shipbuilding Progress, vol. 67, no. 2-4, pp. 141-172, 2020