Information Knowledge Systems Management - Volume 10, issue 1-4

Article Type: Other

DOI: 10.3233/IKS-2012-0182

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 1-1, 2011

Article Type: Other

DOI: 10.3233/IKS-2012-0181

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 3-4, 2011

Authors: Rouse, William B. | Boff, Kenneth R. | Sanderson, Penelope

Article Type: Research Article

DOI: 10.3233/IKS-2012-0183

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 5-23, 2011

Authors: Rouse, William B. | Serban, Nicoleta

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: This paper elaborates the conceptual underpinnings needed to understand and influence change in complex socio-technical systems. The nature of causality is first addressed, followed by consideration of the nature of complexity. It is argued that, at least from a practical perspective, the difficulty in understanding causality increases as complexity increases. The possibility of influencing change is addressed in terms of concepts, principles and models for analysis and design in a range of domains or contexts.

Keywords: Causality, complexity, modeling, economics, healthcare

DOI: 10.3233/IKS-2012-0184

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 25-49, 2011

Authors: Abbass, Hussein A. | Petraki, Eleni

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Causality is grounded in every scientific field. Computational modelling is no exception, except that it is our focus in this article. But what if we have made a mistake? Is causality a constraint on our understanding of complex systems? Is it an obstacle in our ability to build theories to control change in complex systems? Or do we merely need to refine the concept as we evolve from one level of complexity to another? We start the journey …of this article by glancing over a few key pieces of work from Philosophy and Metaphysics. We then centre the discussion on the pivotal element of this paper, causality of change in complex systems of systems and demonstrate that a counterfactual analysis of causality breaks down. We steer the discussion more towards "change" and the separation between physical and perceptual elements. Three applications are presented as examples of the type of complexity we face in computational modelling of complex systems of systems. These three applications – covering story generation in linguistics, network centric operations in defence and interdependency security problems – demonstrate how causal dependencies can be modelled, identified and extracted from a computational environment that mimics real-world complex systems of systems. We conclude the paper with a proposed model to control change in complex systems; a model we call the E4 model. Show more

Keywords: Causality, causation, storytelling, planning, network centric operations, interdependent security

DOI: 10.3233/IKS-2012-0185

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 51-74, 2011

Authors: Mumford, Stephen | Anjum, Rani Lill

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: The orthodox view of the fundamentals of causality can be traced back to the empiricist philosophy of David Hume. Hume said that for causality to occur, the cause and effect must be spatially together, the cause must occur before the effect and must always be followed by that type of effect. Hume also thought that our concept of cause included necessity, but he rejected this as unjustified by the evidence of our sense. We show how all four of these …conceptual assumptions about what it is for one this to cause another can be challenged. An alternative view based on real powers or dispositions can allow causation without necessity, constant conjunction, temporal priority, or even contiguity. Show more

Keywords: Cause, David Hume, powers, complexity, threshold

DOI: 10.3233/IKS-2012-0186

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 75-84, 2011

Authors: Sloman, Steven A. | Fernbach, Philip M.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: We characterize what is known about how people represent, reason about, and predict the behavior of complex systems. People tend to simplify complex systems in three ways: First, people resort to heuristics that are selective in the information they consider. These heuristics often yield satisfactory results though they can lead to systematic error. Second, when people do try to take more information into account, they often use a model that has a simple linear form that …ignores most of the interactions and sources of unpredictability in the system. Finally, when going beyond heuristics and simple linear combinations, people tend to build a mental causal model that reflects the causal structure of the system by representing qualitative structure relating the mechanisms that lead from causes to effects. The bulk of the chapter concerns the nature of causal models. Although people excel at representing how individual mechanisms work and how they are linked to each other, they tend to neglect cycles of causation, often fail to reason quantitatively, and sometimes ignore relevant variables. Show more

Keywords: Psychology of complex systems, causal reasoning, causal models

DOI: 10.3233/IKS-2012-0187

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 85-99, 2011

Authors: Mumford, Stephen | Anjum, Rani Lill

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Complexity should be at the heart of any viable theory of causation. Without it, we cannot give a sensible account of the importance of context. With many causal factors in play, jointly producing an effect, we come to understand the context-sensitive nature of causation. Cases of hypersensitivity, unintended consequences and antipathetic reactions will be outlined together with some considerations for our interventions.

Keywords: Context, polygeny, context-sensitivity, unintended consequences, emergence, causal particularism

DOI: 10.3233/IKS-2012-0188

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 101-110, 2011

Authors: Namatame, Akira | Komatsu, Takanori

Article Type: Research Article

Keywords: Cascade failure, systemic risk, diffusion, threshold-based diffusion, endogenous risk, exogenous risk, optimal network design

DOI: 10.3233/IKS-2012-0189

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 111-133, 2011

Authors: Snowden, David

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: This chapter establishes two typologies, one based on power laws and the other on complex adaptive systems theory, to provide a basis for understanding systems where it not possible to reduce uncertainty, only to absorb it. Those typologies are used to establish a framework within which different approaches to foresight can be distinguished. These range from systems models, through scenario planning to more recent techniques utilizing attractor landscapes and distributed cognition.

DOI: 10.3233/IKS-2012-0190

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 135-150, 2011

Authors: Leifer, Larry J. | Steinert, Martin

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Over the past thirty years, a powerful methodology for innovation has emerged from engineering and design thinkers in Silicon Valley. It integrates human, business and technical factors in problem forming, solving and design: "Design Thinking." This human-centric methodology integrates expertise from design, social sciences, business and engineering. It is best implemented by high performance project teams applying diverse points-of-view simultaneously. It creates a vibrant interaction environment that promotes iterative learning cycles driven …by rapid conceptual prototyping. The methodology has proven successful in the creation of innovative products, systems, and services. Through courting ambiguity, we can let invention happen even if we cannot make it happen. We can nurture a corpus of behaviors that increase the probability of finding a path to innovation in the face of uncertainty. Emphasis is placed on balance of the questions we ask, and the decisions made. A suite of application examples and research finding will be used to illustrate the concepts in principal and in action.'' Show more

Keywords: Causality, corpus of behavior, corpus of knowledge, coordination, instrumentation, design learning, design thinking, engineering design research, global collaboration, performance measurement, teamwork

DOI: 10.3233/IKS-2012-0191

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 151-173, 2011

Authors: Haslett, Tim

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: This paper proposes a methodology for the assessment and redesign of emergency response organizations. The paper takes a multi-methodology approach and discusses a series of well-established theoretical frameworks to provide accessible and easy to understand processes for practicing managers. The paper begins by highlighting the non-linear and catastrophic nature of civil emergencies as the basis for organizational design. The methodology proposed to sequential. The first stage uses Pepper's World Hypotheses as a means for …assessing organizational responsiveness. The second stage applies Checkland's CATWOE and stakeholder analysis as a means to applying the "wisdom of crowds" to organizational design. The third stage involves scenario planning using qualitative System Dynamics and causal loop diagrams. The fourth stage applies elements of Stafford Beer's Viable Systems Model to the process of environmental scanning. The fifth and final stage is a discussion of the need to build organizational learning into the adaptive capabilities of the organization. Show more

Keywords: Emergency organizations, catastrophic shifts, Pepper's World Hypotheses, System Dynamics, Stafford Beer

DOI: 10.3233/IKS-2012-0192

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 175-188, 2011

Authors: Lissack, Michael R.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: We depend upon explanation in order to "make sense" out of our world. And, making sense is all the more important when dealing with change. But, what happens if our explanations are wrong? This question is examined with respect to two types of explanatory model. Models based on labels and categories we shall refer to as "representations". More complex models involving stories, multiple algorithms, rules of thumb, questions, ambiguity we shall refer to as "compressions". Both …compressions and representations are reductions. But representations are far more reductive than compressions. Representations can be treated as a set of defined meanings – coherence with regard to a representation is the degree of fidelity between the item in question and the definition of the representation, of the label. By contrast, compressions contain enough degrees of freedom and ambiguity to allow us to make internal predictions so that we may determine our potential actions in the possibility space. Compressions are explanatory via mechanism. Representations are explanatory via category. Managers are often confusing their evocation of a representation (category inclusion) as the creation of a context of compression (description of mechanism). When this type of explanatory error occurs, more errors follow. In the drive for efficiency such substitutions are all too often proclaimed – at the manager's peril. Show more

Keywords: Coherence, emergence, cognition, representation, reduction, explanation

DOI: 10.3233/IKS-2012-0193

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 189-212, 2011

Authors: McCrabb, Maris

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Social networks permeate our lives. The desire to understand them pervades much of social science today. This chapter offers an empirically sound method for analyzing causal and dependency relationships among the people, places, things, and concepts that flow within and between social networks. A particular emphasis of this approach is modeling and analyzing the connections between social networks and the physical networks that enable social networks. Most social networks lack a fixed organizing principle or any …discernable, formal structure. This results in a loose coupling of elements within or between networks. This also makes identification of boundary layers difficult. Further, the dimensionality of loosely coupled networks can grow enormously. The approach described here, called Williamsburg, addresses three issues in social network analysis: loose coupling of networks, dimensionality, and the need to test empirically the analytic findings from our approach to social network analysis. Show more

Keywords: Ontology-based information exchange, semantic state-space analysis, social network analysis, dependency analysis

DOI: 10.3233/IKS-2012-0194

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 213-234, 2011

Authors: Kondraske, George V.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: General Systems Performance Theory (GSPT) is relatively new and was motivated by attempts to obtain a quantitative understanding of the interface of human systems to tasks. However, the general nature of this work is emphasized in that it is applicable to any system (human or artificial) at any hierarchical level. Most experimental investigations of GSPT have involved the human system, which is argued to be representative of a circumstance that includes great complexity in itself. The …need for GSPT, key constructs of it, and experimental work are summarized. GSPT concepts are used retrospectively with focus on several other systems to explain common errors made in design and other circumstances that often lead to unforeseen consequences. Relatively simple approaches to demonstrate how GSPT methods could minimize or prevent such errors are delineated. To emphasize the broad applicability of GSPT, several speculative new, contemporary problem contexts are discussed with preliminary guidance regarding recommended measurements and assessment processes. Thus, to realize predictable change in a complex system, it is asserted that one must first have a reasonable understanding of the relationship between key components that form a system at any instant in time. It is ultimately argued in this chapter that: 1) performance is an omnipresent and ultimate concern, 2) performance variables are special and a quantitative understanding of the threshold-based (and not correlation-based), resource economic relationship between performance attributes across hierarchical levels is essential, and 3) assessment of the notion of ``change'' (i.e., in the evolution of complex systems and our understanding of this process) depends, in many situations, first upon valid characterization and understanding of systems from a performance perspective. Show more

DOI: 10.3233/IKS-2012-0195

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 235-259, 2011

Authors: Chan, David

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: This article shows how recent advances in statistical analytical strategies could be applied to correlational or observational data collected from non-experimental designs in order to provide convergent validity for causal inferences regarding "change" in two broad contexts. The first context refers to modeling causal relationships between constructs, specifically on relationships that go beyond the "bivariate prediction paradigm". In this context, mediation analyses, interaction analyses, combination of interactions and mediations, and structural equation …modeling were discussed. The second context refers to modeling the causes of changes over time. In this context, fundamental questions on changes over time were explicated, limitations of traditional techniques for analyzing changes over time were illustrated, and latent variable approaches to modeling changes over time were discussed. Show more

Keywords: Causal inference, mediation, interaction, structural equation modelling, latent variable modelling

DOI: 10.3233/IKS-2012-0196

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 261-278, 2011

Authors: Xie, Yu

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Because of population heterogeneity, causal inference with observational data in social science may suffer from two possible sources of bias: (1) bias in unobserved pretreatment factors affecting the outcome even without treatment; and (2)bias due to heterogeneity in treatment effects. Even when we control for observed covariates, these two biases may occur if the classic ignorability assumption is untrue. In cases where the ignorability assumption is true, "composition bias" can occur if treatment propensity is …systematically associated with heterogeneous treatment effects. Show more

DOI: 10.3233/IKS-2012-0197

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 279-289, 2011

Authors: Tsallis, Constantino

Article Type: Research Article

DOI: 10.3233/IKS-2012-0198

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 291-311, 2011

Authors: Batten, David F.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: This chapter explores and reviews progress with the concepts of plasticity, rigidity and causal history in brain research and related fields. Extensive use is made of papers and books in neuroscience and related fields (e.g. psychiatry, psychology, psychophysiology), as well as meeting proceedings and special issues of leading journals. The goal of the chapter is to show that the human brain is plastic and that it contains various feedback loops that affect the ways we behave. …Processes of circular causality (i.e. upward and downward causation) govern our brain's functioning. What we experience can alter the detailed neuronal structure of our brain and, in turn, that changed neuronal structure can affect what we feel, believe or do in the future. A deeper understanding of plasticity, rigidities and feedback systems may provide a clearer picture of the causal and influence networks evolving within the brain – and how they shape our state(s) of mind. Show more

Keywords: Brain dynamics, causal history, complex adaptive systems, plasticity

DOI: 10.3233/IKS-2012-0199

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 313-333, 2011

Authors: Aarts, Jos

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Health information technology is widely accepted to increase patient safety and reduce medical errors. The widespread implementation makes evident that health information technology has become of a complex sociotechnical system that is health care. Design and implementation may result in a failure; even health information technology can lead to adverse events instead of mitigating them. In this chapter seeks to outline the complexity of health information technology as a part of a sociotechnical systems, describes two …failures at different organizational levels and presents a model how risks can occur. Unfortunately there is a mainly anecdotal knowledge about health information technology failure and potential adverse effects. Therefore the author suggests how as a first step proper and mandatory reporting can lead to better knowledge of failures of health information technology as part of a sociotechnical system and improve deployment in the coming years. Show more

Keywords: Health informatics, patient safety, information systems

DOI: 10.3233/IKS-2012-0200

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 335-344, 2011

Authors: Beautement, Patrick

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: This chapter addresses causality in practice, not just in theory and starts by explaining the characteristics of practice. It then examines how, in social contexts, the complex networks of vested interests, power groupings, dynamic influences and community and cultural tensions can be identified and managed leading to there being perceptions of successful outcomes. Key to this is recognising how 'success' would be seen from the various perspectives and viewpoints and understanding, practically, the opportunities and limitations …for intercepting and engaging with these complex motivations – even though, on paper, some appear to be contradictory or even incompatible. The chapter will describe a 'Landscape', inspired by complexity science, which is used to contrast two urban situations and to show how some of the outcomes and their consequences can be explained in causal terms. It concludes by suggesting developments needed to provide practitioners with a systematic approach to putting `complexity thinking' to work in practice. Show more

Keywords: Complexity-worthiness, change, crisis, damascus, landscape of change, ludlow, practitioners

DOI: 10.3233/IKS-2012-0201

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 345-372, 2011

Authors: Freckelton, Ian

Article Type: Research Article

DOI: 10.3233/IKS-2012-0202

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 373-395, 2011

Authors: Hoffman, Robert | Klein, Gary | Miller, Janet

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: This chapter focuses on reasoning about the causal explanation of events and human activities that are indeterminate and complex. We first consider some classical ideas about physical causation from David Hume and John Stuart Mill, who had significant impact on the psychology of reasoning, and we find in their writings some notions that carry over into modern analyses of cause-effect relations and causal reasoning. We then present the macrocognition paradigm, which is empirically grounded in studies …of naturalistic decision making, and approaches the analysis of causal reasoning through investigation of the functional purposes of various forms of causal reasoning. This sets the stage for presentation of our research on how people interpret the causal reasoning that is presented in newspaper articles. Findings include new patterns and models of causal reasoning. We conclude with a discussion of some "myths" about causation that characterize theories but that do not match well to our research findings. Show more

Keywords: Causal reasoning, prediction, cause-effect relations, macrocognition, ipsative causal reasoning, projective causal reasoning, indeterminate causation, expertise, causal themes, explanation, models of causal reasoning

DOI: 10.3233/IKS-2012-0203

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 397-425, 2011

Authors: Cardullo, Mario W. | Sage, Andrew P.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: The global financial system appears to be heading for a new crisis, triggered in large part by growing and unsustainable levels of global debt. Reserve currencies are an essential element of the world's current financial infrastructure, and are widely recognized for their role in facilitating international transactions. History has taught us that such currencies are also quite transient, being subject to adjustments and changes as economic conditions evolve over time. The United States dollar …now serves as the de facto world's reserve currency. However, this is unlikely to continue unchallenged and unchanged into the future. The G20 and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) appear to be now considering a reserve currency, such as the Special Drawing Rights (SDR), which is obtained through participation of many currencies. The major question is not what will become the new global reserve currency, but how this new currency will be managed. One of the critical issues associated with this currency management effort is that of determining the information systems architecture that will be required, including whether an associated Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) would be helpful in managing this new global currency. An extremely important element in this currency determination activity is a strong governance protocol that all the governments and sovereigns will accept and comply with. Otherwise any new global reserve currency, regardless of whether it is associated with a major information systems architecture foundation, will likely be unsustainable. In this paper, we examine these issues. Show more

Keywords: Global reserve currency, service oriented architecture (SOA), foreign exchange market (FOREX), international monetary fund (IMF), G20^1 – Group of 20 nations, causality of change

DOI: 10.3233/IKS-2012-0204

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 427-444, 2011

Article Type: Other

Citation: Information Knowledge Systems Management, vol. 10, no. 1-4, pp. 445-446, 2011