Note: [] Address for correspondence: Robert R. Hoffman, Senior Research
Scientist, Institute for Human & Machine Cognition, 40 South Alcaniz
St., Pensacola, FL 32502-6008, USA. Tel.: +1 850 202 4462; Fax: +1 850 202
4440; Office: +1 850 202 4418; E-mail: [email protected]
Abstract: This chapter focuses on reasoning about the causal explanation of
events and human activities that are indeterminate and complex. We first
consider some classical ideas about physical causation from David Hume and John
Stuart Mill, who had significant impact on the psychology of reasoning, and we
find in their writings some notions that carry over into modern analyses of
cause-effect relations and causal reasoning. We then present the macrocognition
paradigm, which is empirically grounded in studies of naturalistic decision
making, and approaches the analysis of causal reasoning through investigation
of the functional purposes of various forms of causal reasoning. This sets the
stage for presentation of our research on how people interpret the causal
reasoning that is presented in newspaper articles. Findings include new
patterns and models of causal reasoning. We conclude with a discussion of some
"myths" about causation that characterize theories but that do not match well
to our research findings.
