Authors: Goel, Rajesh | Davis, Jerryl | Bhatia, Amit | Malhotra, Pulkit | Bhardwaj, Harsh | Hooda, Vikas | Goel, Ankit
To propose a model where match outcome is predicted ball by ball at the start of the second inning. Our methodology not only incorporates the dynamically updating game context as the game progresses, but also includes the relative strength between the two teams playing the match. We used 692 matches from all seasons (2008–2018) to train our model, and we used all 59 matches from the current season (2019) to test its performance. Here we have engineered 11 players and 10 bowlers, and all their metrics are tracked as a function of each ball of each over throughout the match
…during the second inning, also keeping in the consideration of dynamically changing target score as one of the attributes. Initially, we tried Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN), Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Boosting, Bagging, and Gradient Boosting with an accuracy of 76.47%(+/–3.77%). With deep learning, we tried the various flavours of LSTM and GRU like vanilla, Bidirectional and stacked to train our models and the results found are very impressive with an accuracy of 76.13%(+/–2.59%). All of these flavors were tested using various approaches such as one-to-one sequencing, one-to-many sequencing, many-to-one sequencing, and many-to-many sequencing, which are discussed in this paper. An accurate prediction of how many runs a batsman is likely to score and how many wickets a bowler is likely to take in a match will help the team management select the best players for each match.
Keywords: Long short-term memory, gated recurrent unit, machine learning, deep learning, IPL, prediction
Citation: Journal of Sports Analytics,
vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 185-196, 2021