Journal of Economic and Social Measurement - Volume 14, issue 1
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ISSN 0747-9662 (P)
ISSN 1875-8932 (E)
The Journal of Economic and Social Measurement (JESM) is a quarterly journal that is concerned with the investigation of all aspects of production, distribution and use of economic and other societal statistical data, and with the use of computers in that context. JESM publishes articles that consider the statistical methodology of economic and social science measurements. It is concerned with the methods and problems of data distribution, including the design and implementation of data base systems and, more generally, computer software and hardware for distributing and accessing statistical data files. Its focus on computer software also includes the valuation of algorithms and their implementation, assessing the degree to which particular algorithms may yield more or less accurate computed results. It addresses the technical and even legal problems of the collection and use of data, legislation and administrative actions affecting government produced or distributed data files, and similar topics.
The journal serves as a forum for the exchange of information and views between data producers and users. In addition, it considers the various uses to which statistical data may be put, particularly to the degree that these uses illustrate or affect the properties of the data. The data considered in JESM are usually economic or social, as mentioned, but this is not a requirement; the editorial policies of JESM do not place a priori restrictions upon the data that might be considered within individual articles. Furthermore, there are no limitations concerning the source of the data.
Abstract: In this study, the planning implications of using local unemployment rates, published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) , are examined. An argument is made that many planners are unaware of the implications of using published unemployment rates in their planning activities. This is primarily because of a lack of understanding of the definitions used by BLS in its statistical program. Research reveals several alternative ways to view unemployment at the local level. Unique data from the Youngstown/Warren SMSA is used to illustrate the problems and prospects of concern to planners. The paper suggests the increased need…for local unemployment rate studies.
Abstract: A consumer price index number (CPI) is the result of combining data from various complex sample surveys. In the present paper we concentrate on but one aspect of the accuracy of a CPI, namely, the variance due to the sampling variability of the budget survey(s) from which the weighting coefficients are derived. Using the individual budget survey data the variance of a CPI can be estimated by means of the method of balanced half samples. This method is applied to several types of CPIs and to CPIs for different groups of households.
Abstract: As the elderly population of the United States grows in absolute number and as a proportion of total population, accurate projections of that population become increasingly important for sound policy decisions. Cohort component techniques are typically used for state and local projections of the elderly population, but are often outdated or even nonexistent for many local areas. This paper suggests an alternative approach, based on Medicare data and simple projection techniques. Projections for several base periods and projection horizons are made for all states and for counties in Florida and are compared with actual Medicare enrollment. On the basis of…these comparisons it appears that Medicare data and simple projection techniques can produce very useful short-run projections of the elderly population for states and local areas.
Abstract: This empirical examination provides preliminary evidence on the ability of companies to manage monetary working capital during an inflationary period. Changes in monetary working capital are disaggregated into volume, inflation, and residual (behavioral) components. After eliminating the volume effect, many firms still had large monetary stock changes. The residual or behavioral factor frequently accounted for a greater change in the balances than changes in prices. Thus, an accounting or financial planning estimate of a monetary working capital balance that is adjusted for volume and inflation price changes is not sufficient to explain changes in monetary working capital balances. Financial managers…need to establish forecasting, monitoring, and control procedures to better manage monetary working capital stocks.
Abstract: The matching of Social Security records to cross-sectional demographic and economic data from the Current Population Survey permits creation of individual work experience data for a large sample of women. The quality of the experience proxy is examined with respect to sample selection bias, measurement error, and regression analysis of wage equations. Provided certain precautions are taken, the experience data appear to be useful for cross-sectional analyses of female wage determination.
Abstract: This paper compares the performance of several anticipatory surveys of U.S. business investment with each other and with projections generated by large-scale econometric models. The Commerce Department survey outperformed both the McGraw-Hill and Merrill Lynch surveys. The relatively strong representation of small and medium size firms in the Commerce survey appear to be the major factor in its superiority over the other surveys. The Commerce Department survey of business expectations also outperformed forecasts derived from either the Data Resources Inc. or the Wharton econometric models.
Abstract: This paper deals with the manner in which personal savings are computed in the National Income and Product Accounts. In particular it focuses on the treatment of the imputed flow of services from the stock of durables, especially housing. This paper presents an alternative estimate of personal savings based on a household cash flow concept. The estimate is then compared with the NIPA and the FRB estimates of personal savings. The new computed rate shows a much sharper decline than the NIPA or FRB rates.