Journal of Economic and Social Measurement - Volume 21, issue 2

Authors: Swanson, David A. | Kintner, Hallie J. | McGehee, Mary

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Estimates of net migration are virtually always constructed from the standpoint that the mortality underlying a survived population is not stochastic and the census counts framing the intercensal period are error free. There is compelling evidence, however, that mortality should …be viewed as a random variable and census counts contain systematic errors. This evidence suggests that net migration accuracy is affected both by random error and bias. We explore the estimation of net migration accuracy by placing “Mean Square Error” (MSE) confidence intervals around 1980–1990 net migration estimates for Arkansas made using the Forward Life Table Survival Method. This type of confidence interval measures accuracy by incorporating both bias and random error. We provide empirical and theoretical justifications for the use of this type of confidence interval over the more commonly-found typed based solely on random error, Since bias can affect probability levels, we provide a simple adjustment that preserves the desired level of probability for the MSE confidence intervals and produces an unbiased estimator. For the illustrative age-gender-race net migration data for Arkansas, we construct 66% MSE confidence intervals and note that they become wider as random mortality variation increases. They also become wider as the differential between 1980 and 1990 net census undercount error increases for a given cohort. We argue that the MSE intervals provide an accurate description of the uncertainty in net migration estimates and that they have useful applications. Show more

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-1995-21201

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 85-126, 1995

Authors: Brynin, Malcolm | Smith, Rachel

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: There are good reasons for wishing to record household relationships as precisely as possible, particularly in panel surveys. Change in the composition of the household has an effect on individual welfare. A household might be stable for many years or …change composition several times in a matter of months. Analysis of the causes and effect of such transitions is critical to much social science. Precision in measurement and development of variables based on this is therefore equally critical. This article describes the development of a new form of household enumeration for use in the British Household Panel Survey. We first briefly describe the data-collection methods tested to fix household membership, and then their value as data-processing tools. Finally, a household relationship variable derived from these new methods is included in a multivariate analysis of financial allocative arrangements within the household. This shows distinctive patterns for households containing step-children, or other non nuclear extensions. Show more

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-1995-21202

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 127-144, 1995

Authors: Li, Chun-Hao | Bagaka's, Joshua G. | Darden, Joe T.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: This paper examines the difference in results obtained from using Summary Tape Files 1A (STF1A) and 3A (STF3A) in measuring residential segregation. The 1A file contains data for the whole population, while the 3A file is based on estimates derived …from a sample of the 1990 census. Computation of segregation indexes for the 45 largest metropolitan areas (MSA/PMSA) in the United States, using both files, revealed large differences. The differences were found to be correlated negatively with the percentage of the minority group population in the metropolitan area. Show more

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-1995-21203

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 145-155, 1995