Using Medicare Data for Short-Run Projections of the Elderly Population

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Smith, Stanley K.^{a; *}

Affiliations: [a] University of Florida

Correspondence: [*] Address correspondence to Professor Stanley K. Smith, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, 221 Matherly Hall, College to Business Administration, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611.

Abstract: As the elderly population of the United States grows in absolute number and as a proportion of total population, accurate projections of that population become increasingly important for sound policy decisions. Cohort component techniques are typically used for state and local projections of the elderly population, but are often outdated or even nonexistent for many local areas. This paper suggests an alternative approach, based on Medicare data and simple projection techniques. Projections for several base periods and projection horizons are made for all states and for counties in Florida and are compared with actual Medicare enrollment. On the basis of these comparisons it appears that Medicare data and simple projection techniques can produce very useful short-run projections of the elderly population for states and local areas.

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-1986-14103

Journal: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 37-49, 1986