Complexity analysis of the Next Gen Air Traffic Management System: trajectory based operations

Abstract

According to Federal Aviation Administration traffic predictions currently our Air Traffic Management (ATM) system is operating at 150 percent capacity; forecasting that within the next two decades, the traffic with increase to a staggering 250 percent [17]. This will require a major redesign of our system. Today’s ATM system is complex. It is designed to safely, economically, and efficiently provide air traffic services through the cost-effective provision of facilities and seamless services in collaboration with multiple agents however, contrary the vision, the system is loosely integrated and is suffering tremendously from antiquated equipment and saturated airways. The new Next Generation (Next Gen) ATM system is designed to transform the current system into an agile, robust and responsive set of operations that are designed to safely manage the growing needs of the projected increasingly complex, diverse set of air transportation system users and massive projected worldwide traffic rates. This new revolutionary technology-centric system is dynamically complex and is much more sophisticated than it’s soon to be predecessor. ATM system failures could yield large scale catastrophic consequences as it is a safety critical system. This work will attempt to describe complexity and the complex nature of the NextGen ATM system and Trajectory Based Operational. Complex human factors interactions within Next Gen will be analyzed using a proposed dual experimental approach designed to identify hazards, gaps and elicit emergent hazards that would not be visible if conducted in isolation. Suggestions will be made along with a proposal for future human factors research in the TBO safety critical Next Gen environment.