Measurement Errors in Census Counts and Estimates of Intercensal Net Migration

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Kintner, Hallie J.^a | Swanson, David A.^b

Affiliations: [a] Operating Sciences, General Motors Research Laboratories, Warren, MI 48090-9055, USA, phone: + 1 313 986 1350 / fax: + 1 313 986-0574 USA | [b] College of Business Administration, University of Arkansas at Little Rock, Little Rock, AR, USA, phone: + 1 501 569 8529 / fax: + 1 501 569 8538

Abstract: We present a method for generating confidence intervals around estimates of intercensal net migration, made using the life table survival method, that incorporate estimates of census measurement errors. The life table survival method applies a life table to a census count to project survivors at some past or future time points. Net migration is then estimated as the difference between the projected number of survivors and the enumerated population at that time. We present confidence intervals based on mean square error, the sum of the variance and squared bias. We assume that random variation in the number of net migrants in an age-sex group is due to random variation in mortality rates and to measurement errors in census counts. We illustrate the technique using data from a small area in Alaska.

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-1993-19202

Journal: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 97-120, 1993