Correspondence:
[*]
Corresponding author: Jack Baker, Ph.D, Research
Scientist, Institute of Applied Research Services, Bureau of Business and
Economic Research, 303 Girard Blvd NE, MSC06 3510, University of New Mexico, NM,
USA. Tel.: +1 505 277 2212; E-mail: [email protected]
Abstract: Accurate description of the distribution of housing units within sub-County
geographies is an important component of small-area population estimation. This
paper pilots the use of the Pearl-Reed logistic model to predict housing unit
growth in urban Census tracts in Bernalillo County, New Mexico for 2007. The
model is based upon 1990 to 2000 growth rates, constrained with respect to a
priori estimates of an upper-limit of housing units that could potentially be
built within a tract based on its land area. In spite of the simplistic nature
of this model, it is found to perform quite well. Further development based on
incorporation of additional economic, demographic, and sociologic data would
likely improve the model substantially; however, in this study the model
out-performed standard trend extrapolation procedures for the study area and
displayed error measures comparable to those reported in the literature for
extrapolation methods in general.
Keywords: Small-area population estimates, Pearl-Reed model, housing unit method, census tracts
