Journal of Economic and Social Measurement - Volume 22, issue 3

Authors: Cohen, Steven B. | Potter, D.E.B.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: The National Medical Expenditure Survey (NMES) Household Survey was designed to produce national estimates of the health care utilization, expenditures, insurance coverage and source of payments for the civilian non-institutional population in 1987. The NMES Nursing Home Component of the …Institutional Population Survey was designed to produce comparable estimates for the population resident in nursing and personal care homes in 1987. Individuals who were admitted to nursing and personal care homes from the community in 1987 were dually represented in the NMES Household and Nursing and Personal Care Home Surveys. This paper presents the estimation strategy adopted in NMES to allow for population estimates of the combined population represented by these component surveys. Particular attention will be given to the derivation of per capita and total health care expenditure estimates that characterize the union of the population in the community and in institutions over the course of 1987. Limitations with respect to the estimation strategy, as a consequence of the NMES survey design are also discussed. Show more

Keywords: Institutional surveys, admissions, dual representation

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-1996-22301

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 161-179, 1996

Authors: Howrey, E. Philip

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Forecasts of real GNP are based on preliminary estimates of National Income and Product Accounts data which will subsequently be revised. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the decrease in forecast accuracy which results from the use of …preliminary rather than revised data. It is found that forecasts of the level of real GNP are very sensitive to data revision, but forecasts of the rate of growth of real GNP are relatively impervious to data revision. Over the period 1986–1991, the period during which real GNP was reported in constant 1982 dollars, the variance of forecast errors of the level of real GNP was four times what it would have been if the finally revised data had been available at the time the forecasts were made. The error variance of forecasts of the rate of growth of real GNP was only about 5 percent greater using preliminary data. These empirical results for the 1986–1991 period are consistent with theoretically determined error bounds for forecasts from trend stationary and difference stationary models with autoregressive disturbances. Show more

Keywords: Prediction error, measurement error, trend stationary model, difference stationary model, autoregressive forecasts

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-1996-22302

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 181-200, 1996

Authors: Fleming, Martin | Jordan, John S. | Lang, Kathleen M.

Article Type: Research Article

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-1996-22303

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 201-218, 1996