Abstract: Background and purpose:There is a need for individuating those post-stroke patients who may benefit from an optimal and customised rehabilitation plan aiming at early reintegration in community life participation. This study investigated whether the gain of independence in complex Activities of Daily Living (ADL) may be predicted before the discharge from the stroke unit using simple bedside determinants. Methods:In 104 first-ever stroke patients with no previous disability, ten determinants at 10 days after stroke were selected. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to identify the prognostic determinants able to predict independence in complex ADL, as measured by modified Rankin Scale grade ≤2. Results:The model shows that having a Barthel Index ≥9, a Motricity Index- Upper Limb ≥75, an age ≤70 and being a male resulted in 100% probability of achieving independence in complex ADL. If three of the four determinants were present, the probability was more than 90%. With the presence of two of the four determinants, the probability ranged from 87% to 28%. With the presence of only one determinant, the probability was 13%. Conclusions:Accurate prediction of independence in complex ADL can be made before the discharge from the stroke unit. The strength of the paretic upper limb, age, gender, and the ability of performing basic ADL are the significant variables. The probability of favorable prognosis depends on the presence and on the robustness of each single determinant.
