Immigration trends’ impacts on state vocational rehabilitation agency minority application rates: An empirical forecast model demonstration study

1Background

Gigantic migration trends among racially and ethnically diverse individuals (Blacks [e.g., Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Cameroon], American Indians or Alaskan Natives [e.g., Mexico], Asians [e.g., China, India, Vietnam, Korea, Japan], Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islanders [e.g., the Philippines], and Latinos [e.g., Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala, Cuba, Dominican Republic]) from economically and/or politically underdeveloped nations to countries that offer economic opportunity and political asylum continue to reshape the world’s population. Consequently, nearly every country around the globe has experienced a substantial refashioning of its demographic landscape (Pérez-Armendáriz, 2014; Perez & Hirschman, 2009; Uhlenberg, 2013). The United States (U.S.) is no exception to this phenomenon having experienced an exponentially high incidence of new immigrants from diverse corners of the world during two distinct periods: (a) the initial immigration wave that began in the middle of the nineteenth century and culminated in 1900 with almost nine million legal immigrants, and (b) the second wave that started 1950 and has not come to an end (Chojnicki, Docquier, & Ragot, 2011).

The nation’s rapidly changing demography and increasing levels of diversity represent an incitement that has sparked active contemporary legislative debate within the context of current immigration policy (Cross et al., 2015; Ewing, 2010; Ewing, 2012). U.S. immigration policy represents a contemporary hot button issue as policymakers contemplate labor market demands and border security concerns. These alarms center on the estimated 9 million undocumented immigrants who are in many cases the parents and family members of citizen-children with disabilities. As the trend of migration to the U.S. continues to advance, the issue of citizenship and understanding the conditions of naturalization becomes increasingly significant (Cross et al., 2015). While immigrants who become U.S. citizens are granted all of the rights that are conferred to native U.S. citizens, legal permanent residents are granted the legal right to remain in the country permanently and work with a renewable green card as proof of lawful status in the country (Stock, 2012). On the contrary, undocumented immigrants continue to live in the “shadows” having no residency rights and oftentimes relegated to menial agricultural-based and other labor intensive lines of employment (i.e., manufacturing and services) requiring repetitive and rapid body movements and fraught with safety concerns often resulting in a disability (Liu & Painter, 2012; Schulz et al., 2013).

Migration to the U.S. has been attributed to individuals’ pursuit of employment opportunities, meaningful wages and an improved quality of life (Bennett, Scornaiencki, Brzozowski, Denis, & Magalhaes, 2012; Kelly, 2010). However, these uncertain migration patterns raise immediate questions regarding the American economy and varied constituencies that are tied to the socio-economic landscape. State vocational rehabilitation agencies (SVRAs), constituent entities, are principle stakeholders that may be heavily impacted by new and emerging racial and ethnic immigration trends. Whether SVRAs have the ability and capacity to deliver services to new minority U.S. citizens, adult legal permanent residents, and citizen-children with disabilities (i.e., school-to-work transition services) is a question that demands immediate attention (Cross et al., 2015).

Potential challenges within SVRA context include cultural and linguistic concerns, health care service access barriers, community participation limitations (i.e., employment, independent living), and the deportation of undocumented family members. For example, Cross et al. (2015) raised the issue that pronounced linguistic and cultural barriers, particularly in communication, may create resistance to services on behalf of the consumers as well as practitioners. More subtle, though not any less prominent, are issues such as little knowledge of rehabilitation services and benefits, cultural mistrust of rehabilitation practitioners and potential employers, low expectations of job placement and little knowledge of and lack of accessibility to technology. The issue of deportation has also been forcefully ventured. For instance, the deportation of mixed-status adult family (i.e., families with citizens and undocumented members) members of citizen-children eligible for SVRA sponsored school-to-work transition services such as parents, grandparents, uncles, aunts, sisters, and brothers erode networks crucial to their success in obtaining and maintaining employment andcareers.

By their very nature, unceasing immigration patterns raise concerns about the capacity of the 80 SVRAs across the nation to effectively respond to this growing crisis (Cross et al., 2015). Consequently, there exist a need for promising forecast methods and applications that can be used by SVRAs, policy makers, researchers, and advocates to inform strategic planning, policy formulation, and research program development for improved rehabilitation experiences. To date, however, relatively few studies have forecasted minority SVRA application rate trends, and so these agencies have had little information available to strategically plan for a rapid and effective response to minority immigrants’ and U.S. born minorities’ needs.

2Purpose of the study

Although Section 21 of the 1998 Rehabilitation Act Amendments (Public Law 93–112) spawned a plethora of research examining rehabilitation experiences along racial and ethnic lines, scant attention has been paid to understanding SVRA and minority immigrant intersection phenomena. More specific, little information is available on the potential impacts of immigration trends on SVRA application rates. Consequently, there is a need to demonstrate the efficacy of forecast models that can be considered for accurately predicting these trends impacts’ on SVRA systems. These trends call for the development of a three-year forecast model to help SVRAs, policy makers, and researchers inform their strategic plans, policy formulation, and future research agendas. The purpose of this study was to demonstrate and assess the efficacy of select multivariate empirical forecast models’ (i.e., Vector Autoregressive [VAR] model and Multivariable Grey Model [MGM]) ability to accurately predict immigration trends’ impact on SVRA new application rates among minorities. The following research questions wereaddressed:

3Methods

4Discussion

This study sought to address the following two research questions: (1) Which forecast model(i.e., VAR model versus MGM) demonstrates the highest level of accuracy in predicting new SVRA application rates?, and (2) What is the three-year (FY 2015 to 2017) forecast of the impacts of racial and ethnic immigration trends on SVRA minority application rates? In regard to research question #1, the findings indicated that the MGM was superior to the VAR model in regard to predictive performance. Consequently, the MGM has promise for use among SVRA leaders, policy makers, and researchers as an accurate forecasting tool to generate predictions that could inform their strategic plan development, policy formulation, and future research program development. Forecasting models are commonly used in business and economics, meteorology and environmental sciences, such as hydrology. For example in business, conceiving a means to predict stock market returns has been a well anticipated goal of some financial practitioners as such forecasting have hefty impacts on the overall stock firms performance and profits. To this end, Van Gysen, Huang, and Kruger (2013) conducted a comprehensive comparison of the predictive accuracy of linear and non-linear models when forecasting financial returns, using a number of macroeconomic variables on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. In meteorological context, Fu, Lee, Wang, Wang, and Vitart (2013) assessed the prediction skill of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) in four state-of-the-art forecasting models for the annual Asian summer monsoon, an occurrence which holds both meteorological and hydrological implications. Although such forecasting models have been confirmed as useful in the aforementioned areas, the literature is void of any such approaches for predicting SVRA application rate trends among minorities. Additional multiple demonstration trials that build upon these results, nonetheless, are needed to either confirm or refute the MGMs’ veracity in curve fitting performance.

In addressing research question #2, the results indicate two remarkable projections. First, the number Asian applicants, when compared to the FY 2014 baseline frequency, are projected to increase by 4.42%, 7.09%, and 12.20% for FYs 2015 to FY 2017, respectively. This projection represents a whopping 23% compound percent change (+) in applications (i.e., from FY 2014 to FY 2017). This finding can be perhaps explained by the substantial number of foreign born Asians residing in the U.S. As reflected in Table 1, over the past ten years, with the exception of calendar year 2009, Asians have represented almost one-quarter of all foreign persons in the U.S. These immigration trends are undeniable, and their impacts on such projections call for SVRAs to pay particular attention to this target population. The finding may have several service and policy implications for SVRAs serving foreign born and U.S. born Asians (e.g., China, India, Vietnam, Korea, Japan) who embrace exotic cultural traditions of their parents, grandparents, and extended family members.

Second, the findings suggest an upward curvetrend trajectory in the percentage of new Black or African American, American Indian or Alaskan Natives, Asians, and Latino applicants for FYs 2015 thru 2017. While the curves suggest that the three-year projected percentages of Blacks or African Americans, American Indians or Alaska Natives, Asians, and Latinos applying for services are anticipated to wax, the percentages for White and Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander applicants are projected to wane. Although the overall number ofBlack or African American and Latino applicants were projected to decrease for FYs 2015 to 2017 and American Indian or Alaska Native applicants were projected to decrease for FYs 2016 and 2017 when compared to FY 2014 baseline frequencies, the curves indicate these target groups’ percentage of the overall applicant pool will show an increase over the three-year projection period. This finding can be attributed to the fact that the total number of projected applicants will decline more rapidly than the number of new African Americans or Blacks, Latino, or American Indian or Alaska Native applicants.

The bridge between culture and disability is intricate. As such, providing culturally sensitive care to minority immigrants with disabilities can be arduous because of language barriers and differences in values and beliefs (Bal & Perzigian, 2013; Lindsay, Tétrault, Desmaris, King, & Piérart, 2014). Most research on culturally sensitive care and services emphasize ethnic-minority groups as a whole, very little is known about immigrants. Differences between immigrant families and practitioners can significantly impact successful outcomes. Therefore, practitioners should be aware that immigrant families may have conflicting views about disability, establishing the need and having access to various health and rehabilitation related services (Lindsay et al., 2014). Because most practitioners are trained from a western perspective and lack training in working with families from diverse backgrounds, SVRAs should be prepared to develop strategies that allow their personnel to work effectively in circumstances that may require additional cross-cultural competencies.

A second point for practitioners to consider while working with individuals from these diverse immigrant groups (i.e., Blacks, American Indian or Alaska Natives, Asians, and Latinos) is being able to understand the complexities of immigrants’ family dynamics. In the U.S. immigrant families are increasingly composed of members of varying legal status or mixed-status families (Zayas & Bradlee, 2014). Approximately 4.5 million of the 5.5 million children of undocumented parents are U.S. citizens. Because of the nature of this demography, it is no longer possible to enforce immigration laws without directly affecting millions of U.S. citizens (Zayas & Bradlee, 2014). Deportation is an issue of critical concern. In light of removal strategies, increasing arrests and detention of undocumented immigrants, tremendous hardship is placed on citizen-children of undocumented immigrants. For example, a Latino high-school student with a disability receiving SVRA sponsored school-to-work transition services whose undocumented mother is deported is likely to experience many adjustment challenges that could result in the failure to place and maintain employment. In essence, the government may be creating two classes of vulnerable citizen-children with disabilities: exiles (those children who go with their parents to another country, often one they do not know) and orphans (those children whose parents leave them in the U.S. in the care of others, sometimes in the child welfare system). Government policies and procedures relating to immigration laws may force undocumented immigrant parents to face awfully distressing choices (Zayas & Bradlee, 2014).

While the above scenario may seem far-reaching as a possible consideration for SVRA professionals in practice, the root of such a buildup has been pronounced as a regular national headline as of late; that being, deportation. More than 400,000 undocumented immigrants were deported in 2012 alone, many the parents of citizen-children with disabilities, according to data from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security [DHS] (Zayas & Bradlee, 2014). This issue is relevant to SVRAs in several ways: (1) the issue of deportation may bring to light the need to address and confirm permanent residency status of foreign-born prospects for vocational rehabilitation services; (2) uncommon counseling and guidance services may be requested by immigrant consumers dealing with family members who have been deported; and (3) cultural and linguistic issues continue to impact ethnic-minority groups, an attempt to understand their dynamics from a non-western perspective within the context of disability may pose significant challenges for immigrant consumers and SVRA practitioners.

What is apparent is the uncompromising realization that this modern demographic landscape dynamized by the increase of ethnic-minority groups in the U.S., particularly new U.S. Citizens and legalized permanent residents with disabilities, has been followed by notice of the need to provide protracted services to them (Bennett et al., 2012; Cross et al., 2015; Leahy et al., 2014; Markides & Rote, 2014). SVRAs will need to prepare to contend with related phenomena in the face of unemployment and underemployment difficulties that persons with disabilities currently encounter (Leahy et al., 2014).

While it is deemed beneficial and desirable for rehabilitation counselors to be familiar with a finite knowledge about the cultural norms of every minority consumer (i.e., immigrant and U.S. born) that he/she serves, the 38th Institute on Rehabilitation Issues (IRI) Prime Study Group encourages them to adopt the more pragmatic cultural humility approach (IRI, 2015). In the cultural humility approach, “the goal is not to master a finite body of knowledge but to simultaneously look inward to examine one’s own conscious and unconscious biases, to reach outward to build relationships with individuals and communities, and to see the client as the expert” (Tervalon & Murray-Garcia, 1998, p. 117). As the percentage of African American or Black, American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian, and Latino applicants increases, so will the demand for counselors who can embrace the cultural humility model in an effort to assist consumers to integrate into the competitive labor market. To this end, there will be a need for new policy initiatives and strategies that will assist SVRAs’ rapid response to projected trends for this target population. For example, new strategic plans that encourage staff and leadership trainings on the cultural humility approach could be beneficial. Such trainings could be carried out by Technical Assistance and Continuing Education centers located in RSA regions with heavy minority populations and significant immigration trends.

5Limitations

This study has three inherent limitations. First, the findings are limited in that they do not specifically forecast the number of new immigrants from racial and ethnic minorities who are projected to apply for SVRA sponsored services. Instead, the findings included minority immigrants as well as U.S. born minorities. The RSA-911 database does not capture or include information in case records as to whether an applicant is an immigrant, and so we cannot ascertain or project numbers specific to immigration status. RSA should consider adding a variable to the case service report inclusive of immigration status information. Second, due to the quantitative nature of the research, no information pertaining to the types of service and policy implications needed in response to the projections is available. Consequently, there is a need to ascertain the perspectives of SVRA personnel and other immigration experts as to the potential implications and responses to this growing crisis. In doing so, the following research questions should be addressed: (a) What is the priority of importance for impacts of emerging and new U.S. citizen and permanent residency population trends on SVRAs’ capacity to serve immigrants with disabilities from traditionally underserved racial and ethnic populations? (b) What is the priority of significance for strategies that could be implemented by SVRAs to address micro and macro level impacts of emerging and new immigration trends on service capacity to new U.S. citizens and legal permanent residents from racial and ethnic populations?, and (c) What are the strategies used by states that are successfully meeting the needs of new immigrants and other traditionally underserved racial and ethnic populations?

Third, information contained in the RSA-911 database is not immune to personnel error. Consequently, the database may include erroneous information. The database, nonetheless, is historically accepted as a viable data source for addressing service and policy questions that need to be answered. As a broad generalization, these conclusions may be helpful to national policymakers and state VR agency leaders interested in improving the rehabilitation experiences of minorities.

6Conclusion

This study assessed the predictive accuracy of select forecast models in regard to the impacts of immigration trends on SVRA application rates. The MGM was demonstrated to be superior to the VAR model. The MGM three-year forecast projected an upward curve trend trajectory in the percentage of new Black or African American, American Indian or Alaskan Natives, Asians, and Latino applicants for FYs 2015 thru 2017. These findings suggest that the MGM represents a promising forecast approach that could assist SVRAs in responding rapidly and appropriately to potential immigration trends impacts. Moreover, projected application percentage curve trends suggest that SVRAs should prepare and plan to serve individuals with disabilities from these minority groups. However, there remains a need for additional demonstration trials to either confirm or refute the MGM’s efficacy in prediction accuracy in comparison to other multivariate forecast models.

Conflict of interest

The authors have no conflict of interest to report.