A New Contribution in the Statistical Debate Over Trends in the Net Barter Terms of Trade Between Primary Commodities and Manufactures

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Sapsford, D.^{a; *}

Affiliations: [a] University of East Anglia and the International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

Correspondence: [*] Address correspondence to Dr. D. Sapsford, School of Economic and Social Studies, University of East Anglia, Norwich, East Anglia NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom.

Abstract: This paper presents some new evidence in the statistical debate surrounding the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a declining long-run trend in the net barter terms of trade between primary products and manufactures. The paper analyses data from a variety of sources covering the period up to and including the early 1980s and finds evidence of a structural instability in the underlying growth path. Once appropriate action is taken to allow for this instability, some strong empirical support for the declining trend hypothesis emerges.

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-1986-14403

Journal: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 14, no. 4, pp. 277-288, 1986