Economic growth in Greece: Medium-term trends and future prospects

Issue title: Greece and Greek Statistics

Guest editors: George Bitros

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Papaioannou, Sotiris^a

Affiliations: [a] Centre of Planning and Economic Research, 11 Amerikis Street, 10672 Athens, Greece. Tel.: +30 210 3676426; E-mail: [email protected] | Athens University of Economics and Business, Athens, Greece

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to provide an estimate of the medium term trend growth rate of real GDP for the Greek economy, for the period 2011–2015. The analysis is based on the GDP identity, according to which, real GDP is decomposed into five components, which are labor productivity, hours worked per employee, employment rate, labor force participation rate and population rate. By using the filtering techniques of the HP and Kalman filters, the trend growth rate of GDP is estimated at −1.65% over the five year period, as the sum of the trend growth rates of its individual components.

Keywords: Economic growth, Kalman filter, Greek economy

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-130371

Journal: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 113-125, 2013