Contribution of statistical analysis to the investigations of the international criminal tribunals

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Brunborg, Helge^{; 1}

Affiliations: Statistics Norway, Box 8131 Dep., 0033 Oslo, Norway. Tel.: +47 22 86 48 65; Fax: +47 22 86 49 88; E-mail: [email protected]

Note: [1] The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and not necessarily those of the United Nations or Statistics Norway.

Abstract: The paper discusses how statistical analysis can contribute to investigations and trials at a war crimes tribunal, based on the author's experience at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia. The main objective of the author's project has been to obtain estimates of population changes in Bosnia and Herzegovina during the 1992–95 armed conflicts, focusing on dead, missing, displaced persons, and refugees. The exact number of affected persons is not known, with estimates varying from 20 000 to more than 300 000 war-related deaths. Most of the work has been done with data collected on individuals for all or parts of Bosnia – pre-war population, victims and survivors. Procedures for quality checking and matching of such data, which often have weaknesses in the form of missing or wrong information such as misspelling of names, have been developed. Examples are given of the number of victims for some areas, for which strong numerical indications of ethnic cleansing are found. In this paper we describe our work at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and give two examples of findings for Bosnia and Herzegovina for the war period 1992–1995. The first example is an analysis of the number of missing and dead persons after the fall of the Srebrenica enclave on 11 July 1995, which has been called Europe's worst massacre since World War II. As the result of our work, we conclude that a minimum of 7 475 persons from the Srebrenica enclave are missing and presumed dead. Our analysis shows that only a very small number of the persons registered on lists of missing persons could be alive. The results from this project have been presented in court in the trial against General Radislav Krstic, who is charged with genocide, crimes against humanity and violations of the laws and customs of war. We also present an example of estimation of ethnic cleansing of an area.

DOI: 10.3233/SJU-2001-182-310

Journal: Statistical Journal of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, vol. 18, no. 2-3, pp. 227-238, 2001