Affiliations: [a] Department of Mathematics, Parahyangan Catholic University, Bandung, Indonesia | [b] Department of Mathematics, Sultan Idris Education University, Tanjung Malim, Malaysia
Correspondence:
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Corresponding author: Farah Kristiani, Department of Mathematics, Parahyangan Catholic University, 40141, Gedung 9, Lantai 1, Ciumbuleuit 94, Bandung, Indonesia. E-mail: [email protected].
Abstract: Dengue is one of the most dangerous vector-borne infectious diseases in the world which are fatal in many cases due to inefficient treatment. Although the relative risk estimations of dengue transmission are available for Bandung, one of the most populous cities in Indonesia, dengue cases especially among young people have increased rapidly. However, the age factor has not yet been included in these estimations. Because specific treatment and prevention depend on age, this factor must be considered in any dengue transmission model. In this article, the authors classify dengue cases in Bandung into juveniles and adults. Each group is analyzed by SIR-SI model to estimate the relative risk of dengue transmission as an indirect transmission disease which takes into account the stochastic factor. This model also considers a spatial correlation which affects dengue distribution in a specific area for a particular age group. The results of the analysis show that some areas in Bandung have medium to very high dengue risk, especially for the juvenile group. It is expected that The Health Department of Bandung will focus dengue transmission prevention programs more intensively on this group. In further research, if the data needed are available, this model can be applied to other cities in Indonesia.
Keywords: Age, Bandung, Bayesian, dengue, relative risk
