Limitations of the propensity scores approach: A simulation study

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Mandel, Igor

Affiliations: Redviser Inc., Fair Lawn, NJ, USA | E-mail: [email protected]

Correspondence: [*] Corresponding author: Redviser Inc., Fair Lawn, NJ, USA. E-mail: [email protected].

Abstract: Propensity scores (PS) have been studied for many years, mostly in the aspect of confounder matching in the control and treatment groups. This work is devoted to the problem of estimation of the causal impact of the treatment versus control data in observational studies, and it is based on the simulation of thousands of scenarios and the measurement of the causal outcome. The generated treatment effect was added in simulation to the outcome, then it was retrieved using the PS and regression estimations, and the results were compared with the original known in the simulation treatment values. It is shown that only rarely the propensity score can successfully solve the causality problem, and the regressions often outperform the PS estimations. The results support the old philosophical critique of the counterfactual theory of causation from a statistical point of view.

Keywords: Causality, potential outcome, propensity score, regression models, random coefficients regression

DOI: 10.3233/MAS-241505

Journal: Model Assisted Statistics and Applications, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 223-235, 2024