Affiliations: China Electric Power International Forwarding Agency Co., Ltd, Beijing, China
Correspondence:
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Corresponding author. Dongze Li, China Electric Power International Forwarding Agency Co., Ltd, Beijing 100011, China. E-mail: [email protected].
Abstract: With the implementation of China’s “two-carbon” target strategy, the status of renewable energy in the power system is gradually improving. In order to improve the carbon emission control level of power grid, it is necessary to predict the peak carbon emission of power grid. A prediction method of grid carbon emission peak based on energy elasticity coefficient is proposed. A time series model of grid carbon emission samples was constructed, and a combination of combinatorial sorting and machine learning was used to reconstruct the time series of grid carbon emission peaks. Based on the results of time series reconstruction, feature extraction and classification training of grid carbon emission peak are carried out, and the measurement error correction of grid carbon emission under the constraint of energy consumption elasticity is realized. Combined with the association rule mining method, the fusion processing of grid carbon emission peak samples under the elastic constraint of energy consumption is realized. Through characteristic detection and fusion processing of energy consumption elasticity coefficient, the reconstituted carbon emission samples of power grid constrained by energy consumption elasticity were reconstructed, and the peak carbon emission of power grid was predicted. The simulation results show that this method has high accuracy and convergence in predicting the peak carbon emission of power grid, and improves the error correction ability in the prediction process.
Keywords: Energy consumption, elastic coefficient, power grid, carbon emissions, peak value prediction, association rule mining
