Inter-temporal characterization of aggregate residential demand based on Weibull distribution and generalized regression neural networks for scenario generations

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Afzaal, Muhammad Umar^a | Sajjad, Intisar Ali^{b; *} | Khan, Muhammad Faisal Nadeem^b | Haroon, Shaikh Saaqib^b | Amin, Salman^b | Bo, Rui^c | ur Rehman, Waqas^c

Affiliations: [a] Assistant Engineer Electrical, Operations and Maintenance Division, KOENERGY Korea for Gulpur Hydro Power Project, Pakistan | [b] Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology Taxila, Pakistan | [c] Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Missouri University of Science and Technology, Rolla MO, USA

Correspondence: [*] Corresponding author. Intisar Ali Sajjad, Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology Taxila, Pakistan. E-mail: [email protected]. ORCID: 0000-0002-8947-9729

Abstract: The characterization of electrical demand patterns for aggregated customers is considered as an important aspect for system operators or electrical load aggregators to analyze their behavior. The variation in electrical demand among two consecutive time intervals is dependent on various factors such as, lifestyle of customers, weather conditions, type and time of use of appliances and ambient temperature. This paper proposes an improved methodology for probabilistic characterization of aggregate demand while considering different demand aggregation levels and averaging time step durations. At first, a probabilistic model based on Weibull distribution combined with generalized regression neural networks (GRNN) is developed to extract the inter-temporal behavior of demand variations and, then, this information is used to regenerate aggregate demand patterns. Average Mean Absolute Percentage Error (AMAPE) is used as a statistical indicator to assess the accuracy and effectiveness of proposed probabilistic modeling approach. The results have demonstrated that the performance of proposed approach is better in comparison with an existing Beta distribution-based method to characterize aggregate electrical demand patterns.

Keywords: Electrical demand characterization, generalized regression neural networks, scenario generations, time series, Weibull probability distribution

DOI: 10.3233/JIFS-200462

Journal: Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems, vol. 39, no. 3, pp. 4491-4503, 2020