Affiliations: Research Centre for Eco-Environmental Sciences,
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China | Agrifood Research Finland, Jokioinen 31600,
Finland
Abstract: Limited water resources, increasing demand, low use efficiency, and
serious pollution result in severe water resource difficult in China. The
evaluation of addressing water problems and the search for effective
countermeasures that ensure sustainable water use are key to China's
sustainable development. The "compound water security" consists of food
security, life security, environmental security, and economic security. By
establishing a conceptual model, the water security of China has been simulated
in terms of four scenarios called BAU (the business-as-usual scenario), TEC
(the technology and economics scenario), IVL (the institution, values, and
lifestyles scenario) and TSD (toward sustainable development) in this paper.
The results indicated that water crises, especially water shortages, are being
experienced now and will continue to do so for a relatively long time in China
and that it is possible to reach a basic balance between supply and demand of
water and grain under the TSD developing pattern by a series of approaches
including technological innovation, policy adjustments, and behaviour
inducement.
Keywords: water resource, water security, scenarios, simulation, China
