Searching for just a few words should be enough to get started. If you need to make more complex queries, use the tips below to guide you.
Article type: Research Article
Authors: Steenland, Kylea; * | Zhao, Lipingb | John, Samantha E.c | Goldstein, Felicia C.c | Levey, Allanc | Alvaro, Alonsod | for the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative1
Affiliations: [a] Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA | [b] Department of Biostatistics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA | [c] Department of Neurology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, USA | [d] Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
Correspondence: [*] Correspondence to: Kyle Steenland, Emory University, Rollins School Public Health, 1518 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA. E-mail: [email protected].
Note: [1] Data used in preparation of this article were obtained from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database (http://adni.loni.ucla.edu). As such, the investigators within the ADNI contributed to the design and implementation of ADNI and/or provided data but did not participate in analysis or writing of this report. A complete listing of ADNI investigators can be found at: http://adni.loni.usc.edu/wp-content/uploads/how_to_apply/ADNI_Acknowledgement_List.pdf
Abstract: Background:There are no agreed-upon variables for predicting progression from unimpaired cognition to amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI), or from aMCI to Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Objective:Use ADNI data to develop a ‘Framingham-like’ prediction model for a 4-year period. Methods:We developed models using the strongest baseline predictors from six domains (demographics, neuroimaging, CSF biomarkers, genetics, cognitive tests, and functional ability). We chose the best predictor from each domain, which was dichotomized into more versus less harmful. Results:There were 224 unimpaired individuals and 424 aMCI subjects with baseline data on all predictors, of whom 37 (17% ) and 150 (35% ) converted to aMCI and AD, respectively, during 4 years of follow-up. For the unimpaired, CSF tau/Aβ ratio, hippocampal volume, and a memory score predicted progression. For those aMCI at baseline, the same predictors plus APOE4 status and functional ability predicted progression. Demographics and family history were not important predictors for progression for either group. The fit statistic was good for the unimpaired-aMCI model (C-statistic 0.80) and very good for the aMCI-AD model (C-statistic 0.91). Among the unimpaired, those with no harmful risk factors had a 4-year predicted 2% risk of progression, while those with the most harmful risk factors had a predicted 35% risk. The aMCI subjects with no harmful risk factors had a predicted 1% risk of progression those with all six harmful risk factors had a predicted 90% risk. Conclusion:Our parsimonious model accurately predicted progression from unimpaired to aMCI with three variables, and from aMCI to AD with five variables.
Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease, biomarkers, cerebrospinal fluid, dementia, imaging, mild cognitive impairment
DOI: 10.3233/JAD-170769
Journal: Journal of Alzheimer's Disease, vol. 63, no. 4, pp. 1383-1393, 2018
IOS Press, Inc.
6751 Tepper Drive
Clifton, VA 20124
USA
Tel: +1 703 830 6300
Fax: +1 703 830 2300
[email protected]
For editorial issues, like the status of your submitted paper or proposals, write to [email protected]
IOS Press
Nieuwe Hemweg 6B
1013 BG Amsterdam
The Netherlands
Tel: +31 20 688 3355
Fax: +31 20 687 0091
[email protected]
For editorial issues, permissions, book requests, submissions and proceedings, contact the Amsterdam office [email protected]
Inspirees International (China Office)
Ciyunsi Beili 207(CapitaLand), Bld 1, 7-901
100025, Beijing
China
Free service line: 400 661 8717
Fax: +86 10 8446 7947
[email protected]
For editorial issues, like the status of your submitted paper or proposals, write to [email protected]
如果您在出版方面需要帮助或有任何建, 件至: [email protected]