Baseline Shape Diffeomorphometry Patterns of Subcortical and Ventricular Structures in Predicting Conversion of Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Tang, Xiaoying^{a; *} | Holland, Dominic^b | Dale, Anders M.^{b; c} | Younes, Laurent^{a; d; e} | Miller, Michael I.^{a; d; f} | for the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative¹

Affiliations: [a] Center for Imaging Science, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA | [b] Department of Neurosciences, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA | [c] Department of Radiology, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA | [d] Institute for Computational Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA | [e] Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA | [f] Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA

Correspondence: [*] Correspondence to: Xiaoying Tang, Center for Imaging Science, Johns Hopkins University, 301 Clark Hall, 3400 N. Charles Street, Baltimore, 21218, MD, USA. Tel.: +1 410 949 0497; Fax: +1 410 516 4594; E-mail: [email protected].

Note: [1] Data used in preparation of this article were obtained from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database (http://adni.loni.usc.edu/). As such, the investigators within the ADNI contributed to the design and implementation of ADNI and/or provided data but did not participate in analysis or writing of this report. A complete listing of ADNI investigators can be found at: http://adni.loni.usc.edu/wp-content/uploads/how_to_apply/ADNI_Acknowledgement_List.pdf

Abstract: In this paper, we propose a novel predictor for the conversion from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD). This predictor is based on the shape diffeomorphometry patterns of subcortical and ventricular structures (left and right amygdala, hippocampus, thalamus, caudate, putamen, globus pallidus, and lateral ventricle) of 607 baseline scans from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative database, including a total of 210 healthy control subjects, 222 MCI subjects, and 175 AD subjects. The optimal predictor is obtained via a feature selection procedure applied to all of the 14 sets of shape features via linear discriminant analysis, resulting in a combination of the shape diffeomorphometry patterns of the left hippocampus, the left lateral ventricle, the right thalamus, the right caudate, and the bilateral putamen. Via 10-fold cross-validation, we substantiate our method by successfully differentiating 77.04% (104/135) of the MCI subjects who converted to AD within 36 months and 71.26% (62/87) of the non-converters. To be specific, for the MCI-converters, we are capable of correctly predicting 82.35% (14/17) of subjects converting in 6 months, 77.5% (31/40) of subjects converting in 12 months, 74.07% (20/27) of subjects converting in 18 months, 78.13% (25/32) of subjects converting in 24 months, and 73.68% (14/19) of subject converting in 36 months. Statistically significant correlation maps were observed between the shape diffeomorphometry features of each of the 14 structures, especially the bilateral amygdala, hippocampus, lateral ventricle, and two neuropsychological test scores—the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Behavior Section and the Mini-Mental State Examination.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, lateral ventricles, linear discriminant analysis, mild cognitive impairment, prediction, principal component analysis, shape diffeomorphometry, subcortical structures

DOI: 10.3233/JAD-141605

Journal: Journal of Alzheimer's Disease, vol. 44, no. 2, pp. 599-611, 2015