Affiliations: [a] Aquatic Ecology Research Unit, Department of Applied Ecology and Environmental Biology, Campus Coupure-Block F, Ghent University, Coupure links 653 Ghent, Belgium | [b] Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Matemáticas, Centro del Agua y Desarrollo Sustentable, Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral (ESPOL), Campus Gustavo Galindo, Km. 30.5 Vía Perimetral, P.O. Box 09-01-5863, Guayaquil, Ecuador | [c] Department of Environmental Health Science and Technology, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia | [d] School of Environmental Science and Technology, Hanoi University of Science and Technology, Hanoi, Vietnam | [e] Provincial Centre of Environmental Research, Godshuizenlaan 95, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium
Abstract: Macroinvertebrates are globally used in environmental monitoring and assessment. However, due to environmental and biological evolution, local adaptations of species might occur. This can contribute to uncertainties in the extrapolation of family-specific ecological models developed from one region to another. Thus, we aimed to determine if models can be extrapolated to other regions with similar climatic conditions and if a reliable model can be developed from a pooled dataset (consisting of data from different regions). The occurrence of five families was modelled based on physical–chemical water quality variables with classification trees using the data from three tropical river basins (Chaguana in Ecuador, Gilgel Gibe in Ethiopia and Cau in Vietnam). The relevance of each model was tested on complementary data from both the same and other river basins, to test specificity and universality. Furthermore, models with a pooled dataset were developed and tested. Model reliability was assessed based on chance-corrected agreement (Cohen’s kappa, κ) and percent agreement (correctly classified instances, CCI). Values of higher than 0.4 (κ) and 70% (CCI) were used to classify models as good. Only the pollution sensitive taxon (Leptophlebiidae) resulted in reliable models for most cases. In general, responses of macroinvertebrates towards pollution were different among countries except for the pollution sensitive taxa. Thus, extrapolation of ecological models for sensitive taxa to another river basin with similar climatic and environmental conditions is possible. Nevertheless, this type of systematic analyses for all families is necessary to determine and minimize uncertainty in ecological assessment.
