Abstract: As for any organisation, performance indicators for international statistical organisations must shed light on how progress is being made towards agreed objectives. Five types of output can be identified, and several types of customers. A cross-classification of the two lists leads to a number of quality aspects which can be measured with performance indicators. These indicators must have specific characteristics. A case study on EUROSTAT performance indicators illustrates this approach.
Abstract: We make the following points. (1) The performance of National Statistical Institutes (NSI) is of interest to a wide variety of groups: users of official statistics, respondents, the funders of the activity, employees and, first and foremost, the management of the NSI. We argue that, of all these needs, those of management are (or should be) the most comprehensive. Hence satisfying these needs will typically also meet the needs of most others. (2) We argue that while the assessment of all aspects of performance is crucial, not all of these are measurable. Hence we emphasize performance assessment rather than…performance measurement . (3) We discuss performance monitoring under the following headings: (a) information quality, including relevance, accuracy, timeliness, accessibility, interpretability, coherence; (b) financial performance, with emphasis on an effective project based cost recording system; (c) respondent relations; and (d) human resources management. (4) We conclude by emphasizing that a balanced approach to the measurement of its own performance can only serve to strengthen an NSI's reputation for objectivity and impartiality – which, in turn, is perhaps the single most important determinant of its effectiveness.
Abstract: In this paper, the authors first present the aims of demographic projections and the sources of uncertainty. After that, they discuss the consequences of the uncertainty on the quality of projections, in particular the methods to measure the error due to uncertainty. This paper ends with a presentation of methods to control uncertainty and with some recommendations to encourage users to take uncertainty into account. New analytical methods, as well as best knowledge of underlying mechanisms modifying the occurrence of fertility, mortality or migrations, may improve to some extend the quality of demographic projections. However, the error avoided by…a sophisticated projection method compared to a simple technique is relatively weak. The benefits of sophisticated techniques, with regards to simple techniques (extrapolations, for example), are not proved. Methods like ARIMA may be useful for short-range forecasts, while classical methods based on cohort component methods are to be recommended for long-term projections; structural modelling methods apply to simulation of the policy measures' effects. It may be possible to improve slightly the quality of demographic projections with the help of methods like APC models or with the use of causes of death or of birth order, and thus it may be possible to decrease uncertainty. But the cost to improve the forecast quality is probably higher than the benefit that results from it. The time-range of the projection has to be adapted to the aim of the projection. Official projections would be revised every five years. Simulations can be hold on a longer range. In all cases, the user should be aware of the increasing uncertainty about the future evolution of the demographic processes. Uncertainty concerning the evolution of fertility, mortality and migratory flows will remain linked to demographic projections as to other forecasts. Users of projections are in the habit of dealing with uncertainty, notably by using stochastic projections. Stochastic projections help the decisionmaking by supposing that one cannot predict what will be the future, but rather give some information on the future demographic evolution.
Abstract: The methods used in regional population projections in the European Union and knowledge of internal migration processes in Council of Europe member states have advanced rapidly in the 1990s. This paper brings together these two streams of work and draws lessons from the analysis of migration processes in ten European countries for the design of the next round of European projections, to be launched once the 2000/2001 round of censuses has been successfully completed.
Abstract: This paper discusses improvement of statistics for small areas and groups utilizing sample survey data and data imputed by intensive use of background data from available census or administrative register sources. Reliable accuracy prediction for such statistics is important and is also discussed and investigated in the paper.
Keywords: small area statistics, accuracy prediction, aggregates, aggregate errors, individual data imputation, imputation errors
Abstract: This paper covers main aspects of the first national population census of the Kyrgyz Republic during which use was made of new organizational methods or knowhow which contributed substantially to the success of the census and enable one to speak of a Kyrgyz model for census-taking. A vast advertising campaign concerning the census was conducted on television, radio and in newspapers, and a lottery draw based on the questionnaire forms was held and people could win many valuable prizes (one of the prizes was an apartment in the centre of Bishkek). This played an enormous role in involving the public…in the census. Following the pragmatic approach described above, the decision was taken to hold a pilot census in Kantsky district. The pilot census conducted half a year before the general census served as dress rehearsal for the first national population census. A great deal of work was carried out to attract the help of sponsors and an international agreement was signed with the Government of Switzerland and funds were allocated to conduct the pilot census in Kantsky district. Substantial support was also obtained from the United Nations Population Fund.
Abstract: JOS is a scholarly quarterly that specializes in statistical methodology and applications. Survey methodology and other issues pertinent to the production of statistics at national offices and other statistical organizations are emphasized. All manuscripts are rigorously reviewed by independent referees and members of the Editorial Board.