Journal of Climate Change - Volume 2, issue 1

Article Type: Editorial

Citation: Journal of Climate Change, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. i-i, 2016

Authors: Das, Lalu | Dutta, Monami | Meher, Jitendra Kumar | Akhter, Javed

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Temperature change scenarios over the Chilika Lagoon of India for 200 years (1901-2100) were quantified by the observational data sets of the Climate Research Units (CRU) of UK as well as 39 numbers of GCMs simulations from the Couple Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) through Mann Kendall trends analysis. Long-term trend during 1901-2005 over Chilka Lake indicates the highest warming in the pre-monsoon season (1.79°C) and lowest warming (1.09°C) was shown in both the winter and post-monsoon seasons while opposite warming trends i.e., the lowest warming was observed in pre-monsoon season and highest warming was shown in the winter …season for recent four decades (1969-2009) data. The performance of the CMIP5 GCMs was evaluated over a target point of Chilika Lake. Twelve numbers of models were considered as a group of “better performing GCMs” on the basis of their ability to simulate the long-term trends as well as the mean seasonal correlation with observation. Quantile mapping technique is used for adjusting the bias for the selected GCMs. Improvement in the multi-model ensemble (MME) of bias corrected better performing models compared to MME of 39 GCMs was judged with the help of Taylor plot as well as using four different conventional statistical indices viz. correlation (r ), index of agreement (d index), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and root mean square error (RMSE). All the ensemble members commonly available in the four Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCPs) from the better performing selected models show a temperature change of 0.27-3.61°C, 0.38-3.98°C, 0.28-3.72°C, 0.33-3.41°C and 0.22-2.50°C in annual, winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons respectively at the end of 21st century over Chilika Lagoon. Show more

Keywords: Chilika lagoon, Climate change scenarios, CMIP5 GCMs, RCPs

DOI: 10.3233/JCC-160001

Citation: Journal of Climate Change, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 1-14, 2016

Authors: Silwal, Gunjan | Kayastha, Rijan Bhakta | Mool, Pradeep Kumar

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: With a paucity of glacio-hydrological data, the temperature index model often serves as a powerful tool in melt modeling on a basin scale. This study uses a positive degree-day factor to estimate snow and ice melt and then daily discharge of the Sangda River basin located in Mustang district, western Nepal. The basin encompasses 438 km2 with ~12% glacierized area. The model, calibrated for 2012 and validated in 2013, simulates daily discharge efficiently when compared with the observed discharge. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) for calibration and validation years are 0.91 and 0.92 and volume difference are ~5% and ~7%, …respectively. The relative contribution of snow and ice melt to the discharge in 2012 is ~19% and in 2013 is ~16%. The bias corrected temperature and precipitation data are forced in the model to generate future discharge of the basin for CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Between 2015 and 2050, the average discharge in the basin is 7.52 m3 /s and 7.57 m3 /s for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The projected discharge is predicted to be highest during 2021-2030, whereas glacier melt is highest during 2041-2050 for both scenarios. The sensitivity tests reveal that a warm and dry climate generates more discharge than a wet and cool climate. These results from this study provide a general basis for water planners and policy makers to improve management of water resources in this region for present and future uses. Show more

Keywords: Temperature-index model, Snow and ice melt, River discharge, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5

DOI: 10.3233/JCC-160002

Citation: Journal of Climate Change, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 15-26, 2016

Authors: Bhatla, R. | Gupta, Priyanshu | Tripathi, A. | Mall, R.K.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: A cold wave is a weather phenomenon that is distinguished by marked cooling of the air, or with the invasion of very cold air, over a large area. In the present study, cold and severe cold wave frequencies have been studied for the post-monsoon and winter season over some stations of eastern Uttar Pradesh for the period 1971-2010 and also for the four decades. The highest number of cold wave days are found in Kheri during recent decade during October. During post-monsoon season, Varanasi experienced a significant number of cold wave days during all the four decades. The significant severe …cold wave days were found in recent two decades for each month and season over Kheri. Show more

Keywords: Extreme events, Cold wave, Severe cold wave, Decades

DOI: 10.3233/JCC-160003

Citation: Journal of Climate Change, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 27-34, 2016

Authors: Chand, Kesar | Kuniyal, Jagdish Chandra | Ram, Neetu | Sharma, Gulshan

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Ground based measurement of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and black carbon (BC) aerosol were carried out on the foothills of the three important selected glaciers (i.e., Parbati, Hamta and Beas Kund) in winter season in the northwestern Indian Himalayan Region. The AOD values were found to be in the range of 0.05-0.19. The aerosol loading was observed relatively to be higher (0.15) on 10 November 2014. Besides the biomass burning and frequent incidents of forest fire at local levels, long-range transportation of aerosol particles by air mass from the desert region also contribute to aerosol loading at observing sites. The …average value of BC concentration ranges from 283 to 2026 ng m−3 . BC concentration increases more than three times during morning and evening compared to night hours, in addition to shallow boundary layer and a larger possibility of BC intrusion from it during morning and evening. Variations of BC shows high concentration during winter dry season associated with the air masses predominantly coming from Indian plain rich in carbonaceous aerosols. The BC concentration is found to have relationship with anthropogenic activities, fossil fuel burning and biomass burning which has been observed in past in this region. Show more

Keywords: Aerosol optical depth, Black carbon, Air mass back trajectory, Northwestern Indian Himalaya

DOI: 10.3233/JCC-160004

Citation: Journal of Climate Change, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 35-42, 2016

Authors: Rathore, L.S. | Chattopadhyay, N. | Chandras, S.V.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: India, located in south central Asia, has great economic dependence on agriculture. A likely impact of climate change on agricultural productivity is causing great concern to the scientists and planners in the country. Weather forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales would be significant tool for adaption in agriculture under future climate change scenario. In the present paper, detailed elaboration has been made how the state-of-art technologies of weather forecasting including the climate projections can be taken as a tool to reduce the negative impacts of climate change and climatic variability. Also for combating the climate change issues, the adaptation …requires effective and timely delivery and exchange of all supporting mechanism and meteorological information. Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) can also play a great role to disseminate the information. Efforts were also made to show the active role of on-going and proposed ICTs for adaptation in agriculture to climate change. Show more

Keywords: Climate change, Variability, Weather forecasting, Information and Communication Technology

DOI: 10.3233/JCC-160005

Citation: Journal of Climate Change, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 43-51, 2016

Authors: Dimri, A.P.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Monthly correlation of Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR) index with various monsoon indices changes predominantly and peaks within summer season (Ailikun and Yasunari, 2001). There is transition in this lead and lagged correlation during spring (March, April and May). This spring transition could not be captured in many general circulation models (GCMs) and is termed as “predictability barrier” (Latif and Graham, 1991). It has been less investigated and hence reasons for dampening/reversal of associated large scale fields during spring are intriguing. Present study illustrates dynamics of spring predictability barrier with Indian summer (June, July, August and September) monsoon (ISM). In …this study, based on data from 1979 to 2008, an internal dynamics between various monsoon indices and corresponding IMR anomaly is diagnosed. It is found that secular behaviour of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during preceding spring of monsoon months (June, July, August and September) gets reversed in succeeding spring. Though correlation between various monsoon indices and ISM index remains similar during preceding and succeeding springs with peaks during monsoon (June, July, August and September), corresponding large scale fields show that strong significant convection dominates over the southern equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, northern equatorial western Pacific Ocean, Indonesian throughflow and weaker significant convection dominates over the Head Bay of Arabian Sea and western to central Indian sub-continent during preceding spring. Such patterns reverse during succeeding spring. Show more

Keywords: Spring predictability barrier, Indian summer monsoon, Correlation

DOI: 10.3233/JCC-160006

Citation: Journal of Climate Change, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 53-60, 2016

Authors: Hosaka, Yu | Saraswat, Chitresh | Moe, Aung Thu | Kumar, Pankaj | Ramanathan, AL.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Ensuring the water availability with better quality and quantity for all through sustainable management of it by the year 2030 is one of the top priorities of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). With having proper knowledge about drivers causing water quality deterioration at right time will help policy makers to take right measures to retrieve the quality back to normal or at least stop further degradation. With the above theme, this work tries to give insight about the factors affecting water quality/quantity and strategy or action plan needed to overcome the challenges by enhancing community resilience for lake …Baikal and Baikal basin. Main factors affecting water quality include anthropogenic activities well supported with lack of proper law enforcement, quality monitoring and climate variability. Show more

Keywords: Lake Baikal, Water resources, Stresses, Sustainable management

DOI: 10.3233/JCC-160007

Citation: Journal of Climate Change, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 61-67, 2016

Authors: Deka, Jyoti Prakash | Yamanaka, Tsutomu | Singh, Sangeeta | Choudhry, Rahul | Tyang, Goman | Kumar, Manish

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Four high altitude lakes i.e Sella Lake, Pangang Tang Tso Lake, Shungatser Lake and Tskyo Tso Lake located at an altitude of 3962 metres in the Eastern lesser Himalaya were monitored for seasonal variation in hydrogeochemical processes and effective CO2 pressure in order to understand the imprints of climate change. A comparative scenario of water quality among high altitude Himalayan lakes has been also presented. In the post-monsoon season, all major cations increased whereas major anions except NO3 − increased in the lake system. The results revealed that major cations in the lakes in post-monsoon increased whereas major …anions except NO3 − increased in post-monsoon. During pre-monsoon, Ca-HCO3 type and Ca-Mg-SO4 type were the major faces of lake water which changed to Na-SO4 and Ca-Na-HCO3 type in post-monsoon. It was found that wet precipitation of aerosols is the most important source of major ions followed by chemical weathering. The pCO2 has increased in the post-monsoon probably due to higher atmospheric CO2 during winter than that of rainy season. Factor analysis revealed that weathering, anthropogenic are the main governing process in the pre-monsoon whereas evaporative enrichment and geochemical inputs are the main process in the post-monsoon season. ANOVA analysis showed significant difference for pH, EC, SO4 2− , NO3 − , Na+ , K+ indicating input from evaporative enrichment, weathering and long range transport of pollution to lake system. Show more

Keywords: High altitude lake, Trace elements, Factor analyses, Weathering, Climate change

DOI: 10.3233/JCC-160008

Citation: Journal of Climate Change, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 69-78, 2016

Authors: Gurditta, Harsh | Singh, Gurmeet

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: The effect of climate change on agriculture and food system is well studied. Altered rainfall pattern or temperature significantly influences crop productivity. This results into the socioeconomic vulnerability affecting the food system and security. Even though there are numerous independent studies carried out on the aspects of climate change, food security and nutrition availability, there are few studies interlinking them, particularly in Indian context. There is a dire necessity to understand the inter-linkage among these three owing to the population growth rate in India. Present paper gives an overview on (a) what are the impacts of climate change on agriculture …productivity in India; (b) how the altered productivity is going to influence food security and (c) how does the nutritional availability score in Indian context. The discussion paper also focuses on the policy steps taken by Government of India to safeguard the food security of the population. Show more

Keywords: Climate change, Food security, Agriculture, Nutrition, India

DOI: 10.3233/JCC-160009

Citation: Journal of Climate Change, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 79-89, 2016