The U.S. Census Bureau is researching and testing new methods to reduce the cost of the 2020 Census while maintaining data quality. One of the most costly components of the 2010 Census was Nonresponse Followup. In this operation, enumerators conducted in-person interviews at housing units that did not return a census questionnaire by mail. For the 2010 Census, enumerators were instructed to visit each of these units up to three times until the case was resolved. Additionally, enumerators were to make up to three contact attempts by telephone. In this paper, we present an overview of current research on determining the number of contact attempts that should be made to nonresponding units with an emphasis on cost containment and improved overall productivity. Rather than the fixed contact strategy employed in the 2010 Census, we consider adaptive approaches that maintain the quality of the data. We present initial results of possible approaches using data from the 2010 Census and discuss the implications of the methods. We also discuss modeling contact probabilities for each hour of the day to support the case management system.
Walker S., , Winder W., , Jackson G., and Heimel S., 2010 Census nonresponse followup operations (NRO) assessment. 2010 Census Planning Memoranda Series, no. 190 [Internet]. 2012 Apr. Available from: https://www.census.gov/ 2010census/pdf/2010_Census_NRFU_Operations_Assessment.pdf.
Groves R.M., and Heeringa S.G., Responsive design for household surveys: Tools for actively controlling survey nonresponse and costs, J R Stat Soc Ser A 169(3) (2006), 439-457.
U.S. Census Bureau. 2020 Research and testing: 2013 Census test assessment. 2020 Evaluation, Analysis, and Assessment [Internet]. 2014 May. Available from: https://www.census.gov /content/dam/Census/programs-surveys/decennial/2020-census/2013_Census_Test_Assessment_Final.pdf.
U.S. Census Bureau. 2020 Field reengineering concept of operations (Con Ops). Presentation to the 2020 Census Program Management Review [Internet]. 2014 June. Available from: http://www2.census.gov/census_2020/pmr_materials/2014-06-06/05_PMR_Field_Reengineering_Conops_6-6-14_v1-0.pdf.
Rao R.S., , Glickman M.E., and Glynn R.J., Stopping rules for surveys with multiple waves of nonrespondent follow-up, Stat Med 27 (2008), 2196-2213.
Wagner J., and Raghunathan T., A new stopping rule for surveys, Stat Med 29 (2010), 1014-1024.
Mule T., 2010 Census coverage measurement estimation report: Summary of estimates of coverage for persons in the United States. DSSD Census Coverage Measurement Memorandum Series \#2010-G-01 [Internet]. 2012 May. Available from: https://www.census.gov/coverage_measurement/pdfs/ g01.pdf.
Mule T., Administrative records modeling update. Presentation to the 2020 Census Program Management Review [Internet]. 2013 June. Available from: http://ftp2.census.gov/census _2020/pmr_materials/2013-06-21/5_PMR_Administrative_ Records_Modeling_v1-0_final.pdf.
Huang T., and Hughes E., Nonlinear optimization in SAS/ OR\scriptsize® software: Migrating from PROC NLP to PROC OPTMODEL. Proceedings of the SAS Global Forum [Internet]. 2010; Paper 242-2010. Available from: https://support. sas.com/resources/papers/proceedings10/242-2010.pdf.
Wagner J., The fraction of missing information as a tool for monitoring the quality of survey data, Public Opin Q 74(2) (2010), 223-243.
Groves R., and Couper M., Nonresponse in household interview surveys. New York: Wiley, 1998.
U.S. Census Bureau. Who's home when. Working paper No. 37. U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.; 1972.
Durrant G.B., , D'Arrigo J., and Steele F., Using paradata to predict best times of contact, conditioning on household interviewer influences, J R Stat Soc Ser A 174 (2011), 1029-1049.
Weeks M.F., , Jones B.L., , Folsom R.E., and Benrud C.H., Optimal times to contact sample households, Public Opin Q 44(1) (1980), 101-114.