Spatial harmonization of economic cycles: Statistical confirmation of European-Russian interaction in real sectors of the economy

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Zarova, Elena

Affiliations: Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Stremyannyi pereulok 36, Moscow 117997, Russia. Tel.: +7 925 1601441; E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract: The globalization process has prompted investigations and quantitative estimations of cross-country and inter-regional interaction of economic activities. Statistical research and econometric modeling results in this field have been published in the literature and on the Internet. However, they deal with the economy of developing countries. We examine the cyclic nature of different branches of economic activity in the Russian Federation and the statistical effect of interaction between Russian and European medium-term business cycles. The results of this statistical research are of interest in correlating forecasts to strengthen European – Russian economic interactions as a consequence of Russia joining the World Trade Organization.

Keywords: Economic cycles, time series decomposition, phase coincidence, spatial harmonization, statistical significance

DOI: 10.3233/SJI-130776

Journal: Statistical Journal of the IAOS, vol. 29, no. 4, pp. 281-287, 2013