Affiliations: Statistics Netherlands, 2492 JP The Hague & 6412 EX Heerlen, The Netherlands
Note: [] Corresponding author: Jan Kardaun, Department SAV, Statistics
Netherlands, PO Box 24500, 2490 HA The Hague, The Netherlands. Tel.: +31 70 337
4916; Fax: +31 70 387 7429; E-mail: [email protected]
Abstract: Reshaping health statistics is a continuous process, but it strides
with unequal pace. Some years carry promises of upcoming profound changes,
while others only offer hard labour on smaller steps forward. In order to allow
modest speculation on the next 5 years, the changes that took place in the past
15 years are considered and put onto historical perspective. Based on five
examples (morbidity, causes of death, health and social accounts, health care
production, and health interview surveys), common factors in the developments
are sought. In retrospect, decisive developments were improved technical,
legal, and methodological possibilities to perform record linkage, both of
persons and of institutions. These developments co-occurred with an increased
permissiveness of public opinion about record linkage, and the existence of
many external linkable data sets. Consequently, many statistics are now based
upon multiple sources. For the next 5 years, developments that build on the
same approach are expected to dominate. Non-official health statistics will
flourish, as other organisations can reap the benefits of new technology and
record linkage too. This may lead to a variety of statistical approaches, with
non-comparable outcomes. Continuing deregulation of health care is a threat for
the stability of data sources and output descriptions.
