Notes on the calculation of posterior probabilities related to outcomes from 2 × 2 matched pair tables

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Gould, A. Lawrence

Affiliations: Merck Research Laboratories, UG1D-88, 770 Sumneytown Pike, West Point, PA 19486, USA. Tel.: +1 267 305 6888; Fax: +1 267 305 6474; E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract: Computationally convenient expressions, and R code for performing the calculations, are provided for Bayesian posterior probabilities regarding the equivalence or noninferiority of the event rates for bivariate binary observations from a matched-pair design. These expressions provide an alternative to, and extend, an expression given by Wellek (eqn. 5.24). In addition, the expression obtained using the alternative derivation for the posterior probability that the difference between the event rates under the two conditions is positive (or negative) depends only on the counts in the off-diagonal cells of the outcome table, which is not immediately evident from the expression given by Wellek.

Keywords: McNemar's test, noninferiority, equivalence, Bayes, transformation

DOI: 10.3233/MAS-2012-0229

Journal: Model Assisted Statistics and Applications, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 245-250, 2012