Affiliations: [a] School of Information and Electrical Engineering, Shandong Jianzhu University, China
| [b]
Shandong Co-Innovation Center of Green Building, China
Correspondence:
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Corresponding author. Chengdong Li, School of Information and Electrical Engineering, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan 250101, China, and Shandong Co-Innovation Center of Green Building, Jinan 250101, China. Tel.: +86-18866410727. E-mail: [email protected].
Abstract: Electrical load prediction plays an important role in power system management and economic development. However, because electrical load has non-linear relationships with several factors such as the political environment, the economic policy, the human activities, the irregular behaviors and the other factors, it is quite difficult to predict power load accurately. In order to further improve the electrical load forecasting performance, a hybrid model is proposed in this paper. The proposed hybrid model combines the Stacked AutoEncoders (SAE) and extreme learning machines (ELMs) to learn the characteristics of the time series data of electrical load. In this proposed method, in order to utilize the characteristics of the electrical load in different depths, the outputs of each layer of the SAE are taken as the inputs of one specific ELM. Then, the obtained results from the constructed different ELMs are integrated by the linear regression to obtain the final output. The linear regression part is trained by the least square estimation method. In addition, the hybrid model is applied to predict two real-world electrical load time series. And, detailed comparisons with the SAE, ELM, the back propagation neural network (BPNN), the multiple linear regression (MLR) and the support vector regression (SVR) are done to show the advantages of the proposed forecasting model. Experimental and comparison results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid model can achieve much better performance than the comparative methods in electrical load forecasting application.
