Strawberries in a warming world: examining the ecological niche of Fragaria×ananassa Duch. Across different climate scenarios

Article type: Research Article

Authors: da Silva, Lidiane Rodrigues^{a; *} | Araújo, Fausto Henrique Vieira^{a; 1} | Ferreira, Sabrina Rodrigues^{a; 2} | dos Santos, José Carlos Barbosa^{b; 3} | de Abreu, Caique Menezes^{a; 4} | Siqueira da Silva, Ricardo^{a; 5} | Regina da Costa, Márcia^{a; 6}

Affiliations: [a] Departamento de Agronomia, Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, Diamantina, Minas Gerais, Brasil | [b] Departamento de Fitotecnia, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, Minas Gerais, Brasil

Correspondence: [*] Corresponding author: Lidiane Rodrigues da Silva, Departamento de Agronomia, Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, 39100-000, Diamantina, Minas Gerais, Brasil. E-mail: [email protected] ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9445-3136.

Note: [1] https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4210-986X.

Note: [2] https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4426-8856.

Note: [3] https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8907-2753.

Note: [4] https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8253-4636.

Note: [5] https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1837-1339.

Note: [6] https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6273-4913.

Abstract: BACKGROUND:Strawberry (Fragaria×ananassa Duch.) is a species of great economic and nutritional importance. It is widely cultivated in different regions of the world. However, climatic factors have a significant influence on its production. OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the ecoclimatic suitability and growth index of F.×ananassa in the face of the impacts of climate change in Brazil and the world. METHODS:The potential global distribution of F.×ananassa it was based on predicted global climate changes using CLIMEX and the A1B and A2 emissions scenario for the years 2050 and 2100. CLIMEX weekly growth index (GIw) was applied, and productivity data in commercial strawberry cultivation in Brazilian areas were collected. RESULTS:The results indicate a progressive reduction in areas suitable for strawberry cultivation globally, mainly on the African continent, Australia, China, and the Americas for the years 2050 and 2100. In Brazil, only the South region and part of the Southeast will continue to be suitable for strawberry production. CONCLUSIONS:The CLIMEX model predicts a reduction in the suitable area for cultivating Fragaria×ananassa Duch between 2050 and 2100 due to climate change. The generated maps can help identify new cultivation areas and support genetic improvement programmes to develop cultivars more tolerant to heat.

Keywords: CLIMEX, improvement, modeling, strawberry

DOI: 10.3233/JBR-240012

Journal: Journal of Berry Research, vol. Pre-press, no. Pre-press, pp. 1-16, 2024