The Burden of Alzheimer’s Disease Mortality in the United States, 1999-2018

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Zhao, Xuan^{a; 1} | Li, Cancan^{a; 1} | Ding, Guoyong^a | Heng, Yuanyuan^a | Li, An^b | Wang, Wei^{a; c} | Hou, Haifeng^a | Wen, Jun^d | Zhang, Yanbo^{e; *}

Affiliations: [a] School of Public Health, Shandong First Medical University & Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Taian, China | [b] Blood Research Institute, Blood Center of Wisconsin, part of Versiti, Milwaukee, WI, USA | [c] School of Medical and Health Sciences, Edith Cowan University, Perth, Australia | [d] School of Business and Law, Edith Cowan University, Perth, Australia | [e] The Second Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University, Taian, China

Correspondence: [*] Correspondence to: Yanbo Zhang, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University, 706 Taishan Street, Taian 271000, China. E-mail: [email protected].

Note: [1] These authors contributed equally to this work.

Abstract: Background:The increasing prevalence of Alzheimer’s disease (AD), along with the associated burden on healthcare systems, presents a substantial public health challenge. Objective:This study aimed to investigate trends in AD mortality and the relevant burden across the United States (U.S.) from 1999 to 2018 and to predict mortality trends between 2019 and 2023. Methods:Data on AD-related deaths between 1999 and 2018 were collected from the WONDER database administered by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The Joinpoint Regression Program was used to analyze mortality trends due to AD. Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated to explore the burden of AD deaths. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to forecast mortality trends from 2019 to 2023. Results:Over a recent 20-year period, the number of AD deaths in the U.S. increased from 44,536 (31,145 females and 13,391 males) to 122,019 (84,062 females and 37,957 males). The overall age-adjusted mortality rate increased from 16.5/100,000 in 1999 to 30.5/100,000 in 2018. AD mortality is projected to reach 42.40/100000 within the year 2023. Overall, AD resulted in 322,773.00 YLL (2.33 per 1000 population) in 1999 and 658,501.87 YLL (3.68 per 1000 population) in 2018. Conclusion:Our findings demonstrate an increase in AD mortality in the U.S. from 1999 to 2018 as well as a rapid increase from 2019 to 2023. The high burden of AD deaths emphasizes the need for targeted prevention, early diagnosis, and hierarchical management.

Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease, mortality, time series analysis, years of life lost

DOI: 10.3233/JAD-210225

Journal: Journal of Alzheimer's Disease, vol. 82, no. 2, pp. 803-813, 2021