Affiliations: National Aerospace Laboratory (NLR), Air Transport Safety Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Note:  Corresponding author: Sybert H. Stroeve, National Aerospace Laboratory (NLR), Air Transport Safety Institute, Anthony Fokkerweg 2, 1059 CM Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Emails: Sybert.Stroeve@nlr.nl (S.H. Stroeve), Bas.van.Doorn@nlr.nl (B.A. van Doorn), Bert.Bakker@nlr.nl (G.J. Bakker).
Abstract: Agent-based dynamic risk modelling supports the design of future air traffic operations by risk analysis methods that account for the performance variability of the interacting operators and systems, and the resulting emergence of safety occurrences. The paper shows the application of this modelling approach in a risk assessment cycle of a future A-SMGCS level 3 supported taxiing into position and hold operation. Accident risk results have been obtained by Monte Carlo simulations of a multi-agent dynamic risk model. The uncertainty in the risk has been evaluated using sensitivity analysis and feedback of operational experts.