The Kyoto Protocol after Marrakesh

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Dasgupta, C

Affiliations: Distinguished Fellow, TERI, Darbari Seth Block, Habitat Place, Lodhi Road, New Delhi – 110 003, India

Abstract: The accords reached at Bonn and Marrakesh resolved important operational questions left open at Kyoto and gave final shape to the Kyoto Protocol. This achievement came at a considerable price in terms of defining the Kyoto targets as well as procedural transparency. The accords have drained ‘supplementarity’ of all operational significance. It imposes no ceiling on the extent to which an Annex I Party may take recourse to the ‘flexibility mechanisms’. Thus over 50% of the notional reduction in emissions is likely to be accounted for by trading in ‘hot air’—a mere accounting device. This figure could be even larger unless steps are taken to ensure that the entry of Kazakhstan (and any other country) into Annex I for the purposes of the protocol does not lead to a further expansion in the supply of ‘hot air’. The agreed ceilings for additions to and subtractions from the assigned amounts of Parties for forest management activities will enable the Annex I Parties to account for another 38.31% of their notional emission reduction commitments. There was a certain lack of transparency in the manner in which the ceilings were calculated. Thus the actual reduction in emissions required of the Annex I Parties will be very modest—just over 11% of the notional figure. This includes credits for joint implementation and clean development mechanism projects besides domestic actions. Only a very small part of the Kyoto targets is likely to be met through domestic actions in Annex I countries. The Kyoto Protocol, as given final shape in Marrakesh, will at best lead to a marginal reduction in the actual GHG emissions of ratifying Annex I countries.

DOI: 10.3233/IJR-120016

Journal: International Journal of Regulation and Governance, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 45-52, 2002