Verifying greenhouse gas emissions of Annex I parties: Methods we have and methods we want

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Zahar, Alexander

Note: [] Macquarie Law School, Sydney, Australia, <[email protected]>. As an energy-sector expert in the UNFCCC system, I participated in reviews of state-emission reports as a member of Expert Review Teams. I was nominated to the international roster of experts by the Australian Government. The opinions expressed here are not to be taken to reflect the views of the UNFCCC Secretariat or the Australian Government. The paper is based on a talk I gave at the Colloquium of the IUCN Academy of International Environmental Law, held in Ghent, Belgium, in September 2010. I gratefully acknowledge the financial support for conference-related expenses provided by Professor Paul Burton in his capacity as Director of the Climate Change Response Program, Griffith University, Australia. I am also indebted to Gregg Marland for his comments on an earlier version of this paper. I remain solely responsible for all errors.

Abstract: Despite the hopeful prediction in the New York Times story, we are very far from being able to use satellites to verify compliance with the Kyoto Protocol's caps on greenhouse gas emissions of Annex I states. The problem is not only one of insufficiently developed or installed technology. “Satellite verification” would also mean changing the current system of reporting-and-review of state emissions, opening it up to independent scrutiny, and making it less forgiving of state evasiveness and ambiguity about emissions than it is now. Some states will be interested in this proposal and others will not. In any event, the current MRV system, built on bottom-up state reporting, will remain the dominant framework of international GHG emissions knowledge for the foreseeable future. To safeguard its own credibility, it must progressively be strengthened. In this article I outline the existing verification regime's main shortcomings and argue that the most efficient way around them is to incorporate into the current MRV system top-down (satellite and surface) measurements, resolved by modeling software at the state level, and produced by independent scientific experts in cooperation with the UNFCCC.

DOI: 10.3233/CL-2010-019

Journal: Climate Law, vol. 1, no. 3, pp. 409-427, 2010