Journal of Sports Analytics - Volume 1, issue 1

Article Type: Editorial

DOI: 10.3233/JSA-150006

Citation: Journal of Sports Analytics, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 1-1, 2015

Authors: Albert, Jim

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: George Lindsey was one of the first to present run scoring distributions of teams of Major League Baseball. One drawback of Lindsey’s approach is that his calculations represented a situation where the team is average. By use of a multinomial/multilevel modeling approach, we look more carefully how run-scoring distributions vary between teams and how run-scoring is affected by different covariates such as ballpark, pitcher quality, and clutch situations. By use of exchangeable models over ordinal regression coefficients, one gets a better understanding which covariates represent meaningful differences between run-scoring of teams.

Keywords: Multilevel modeling, clutch hitting, multinomial, ordinal regression modeling

DOI: 10.3233/JSA-140001

Citation: Journal of Sports Analytics, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 3-18, 2015

Authors: Davis, Jack | Perera, Harsha | Swartz, Tim B.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: This paper introduces a new metric for player evaluation in Twenty20 cricket. The proposed metric of “expected run differential” measures the proposed additional runs that a player contributes to his team when compared to a standard player. Of course, the definition of a standard player depends on their role and therefore the metric is useful for comparing players that belong to the same positional cohort. We provide methodology to investigate both career performances and current form. Our metrics do not correlate highly with conventional measures such as batting average, strike rate, bowling average, economy rate and the Reliance ICC ratings. …Consequently, our analyses of individual players based on results from international competitions provide some insights that differ from widely held beliefs. We supplement our analysis of player evaluation by investigating those players who may be overpaid or underpaid in the Indian Premier League. Show more

Keywords: Relative value statistics, simulation, Twenty20 cricket

DOI: 10.3233/JSA-150002

Citation: Journal of Sports Analytics, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 19-31, 2015

Authors: Severe, Sean | Kappen, Jeffrey A. | Grout, Jason | Tramosljanin, Jadranka

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: In 2011, the Boston Athletic Association tightened the standards to qualify for the Boston Marathon from 2013 onwards. By simply deducting five minutes and eliminating grace periods, the BAA failed to address differences between female and male qualifying times. Given public outcry and claims of unfairness, our paper tests whether the new standards had unequal gender effects on qualification. Using data on 1.42 million finishers over six years, we find that male qualifying decreased by 5% under the new standards while female qualifying only decreased by 2% , though these effects vary across age divisions.

Keywords: Age, Boston Marathon, gender, rule formulation, sport event management

DOI: 10.3233/JSA-150003

Citation: Journal of Sports Analytics, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 33-42, 2015

Authors: Fu, Qi | Whitt, Ward

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: We develop performance approximations that can help manage the pace of play in golf. In previous work we developed a stochastic model of successive groups of golfers playing on an 18-hole golf course and derived expressions for the capacity (maximum possible throughput) of each hole and the golf course as a whole. That model captures the realistic feature that, on most holes, more than one group can be playing at the same time, with precedence constraints. We now facilitate further performance analysis with that model by developing two new approximations. First, we develop an approximation involving a series of conventional …single-server queues, without precedence constraints. The key idea is to use the times between successive departures on a fully loaded hole as aggregate service times in the new model. Second, we apply established heavy-traffic limits for a series of conventional queues to develop explicit approximation formulas for the mean and variance of the time required for group n to play the entire course, as a function of n . We conduct simulation experiments showing that both approximations are effective. We show how these formulas can help design and manage a golf course. Show more

Keywords: Pace of play on golf courses, optimal interval between tee times, attaining the four-hour round in golf, queues with precedence constraints, queueing networks, queues in series

DOI: 10.3233/JSA-150004

Citation: Journal of Sports Analytics, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 43-64, 2015

Authors: Morey, Leslie C. | Cohen, Mark A.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Although originally developed to estimate the probability of winning percentage when two teams from the same league are matched, the log5 formula suggested by Bill James has often been applied to evaluate probabilities of events resulting from specific batter/pitcher matchups in baseball. However, this odds-ratio based formula may have biases of estimation that become apparent as event probabilities differ increasingly from.500. A series of Monte Carlo simulations across all plausible combinations of batter, pitcher, and league average characteristics demonstrates that the log5 formula yields estimates that are increasingly skewed at more asymmetrical probabilities and that this skew will likely result …in overestimates of proportions, particularly among the statistical leaders in various categories. In addition, testing this hypothesis in the prior 18 seasons of Major League Baseball revealed that log5 estimates of home run results among predictive matchups of positive outlier batters and pitchers resulted in overestimated HR% for all 18 seasons. An alternative estimation procedure, named the Morey-Z formula, is proposed that estimates outcomes from the same inputs as the log5 procedure, but yields estimates that demonstrate greater accuracy in estimating outcomes of low probability events in outlier matchups. Show more

Keywords: Baseball, simulation, log5, estimation

DOI: 10.3233/JSA-150005

Citation: Journal of Sports Analytics, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 65-76, 2015